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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

South Africa | Local government elections: What to expect in 2021

South Africa will hold its local government elections on November 1 with popular discontent and voter apathy at an all-time high. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) and the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) will both see a drop in support, with the populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and new parties benefiting. Hung councils will once again need coalitions to settle matters.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

South Africa | Local government elections: What to expect in 2021

South Africa will hold its local government elections on November 1 with popular discontent and voter apathy at an all-time high. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) and the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) will both see a drop in support, with the populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and new parties benefiting. Hung councils will once again need coalitions to settle matters.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: San Francisco

Metro Economic Forecast San Francisco September 2021 - iPad

Saddled with high costs that has led to out-migration, San Francisco has recovered only 40% of its lost jobs since the start of the pandemic. Its net job decline of 8.3% from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021 ranks 46th of the top 50 metros, and it is not expected to recover all of its lost jobs until Q3 of 2022, later than most. Nevertheless, it is forecasted to see a healthy return of job growth beyond then, averaging 0.8% per year over the five years to 2027 which is above the forecasted US growth rate of 0.5%. Aside from restaurants and drinking places, a number of STEM-related sectors – tech and life sciences — will contribute to the job growth and, more so, to GDP growth over the next five years.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: San Francisco

Metro Economic Forecast San Francisco September 2021 - iPad

Saddled with high costs that has led to out-migration, San Francisco has recovered only 40% of its lost jobs since the start of the pandemic. Its net job decline of 8.3% from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021 ranks 46th of the top 50 metros, and it is not expected to recover all of its lost jobs until Q3 of 2022, later than most. Nevertheless, it is forecasted to see a healthy return of job growth beyond then, averaging 0.8% per year over the five years to 2027 which is above the forecasted US growth rate of 0.5%. Aside from restaurants and drinking places, a number of STEM-related sectors – tech and life sciences — will contribute to the job growth and, more so, to GDP growth over the next five years.

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Economic and social benefits of aviation ATAG
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Research Briefing

Global Travel Highlights and Risks – October 2021

Global Travel Highlights and Risks October 2021 - iPad

Tentative travel recovery has begun with some significant improvements in activity during the middle of the year, and notably in some Northern Hemisphere destinations during summer months. But, for 2021 on average, global travel activity remains weak, with 68% fewer international arrivals expected compared to 2019. Improving vaccine rates, a greater easing of restrictions and a rebounding traveller confidence will ensure continued improvement in the travel outlook for 2022.

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Research Briefing

Global Travel Highlights and Risks – October 2021

Global Travel Highlights and Risks October 2021 - iPad

Tentative travel recovery has begun with some significant improvements in activity during the middle of the year, and notably in some Northern Hemisphere destinations during summer months. But, for 2021 on average, global travel activity remains weak, with 68% fewer international arrivals expected compared to 2019. Improving vaccine rates, a greater easing of restrictions and a rebounding traveller confidence will ensure continued improvement in the travel outlook for 2022.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

Sweden | Growth seen at 4.1% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, with near-term risks rising

Nordic webinar - October 2021 - bannerSweden: Growth seen at 4.1% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, with near-term risks rising

Although the outlook for Sweden is strong with all restrictions removed, there are downside risks related to persistent supply-chain bottlenecks in industry and surging energy prices.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

Sweden | Growth seen at 4.1% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, with near-term risks rising

Nordic webinar - October 2021 - bannerSweden: Growth seen at 4.1% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, with near-term risks rising

Although the outlook for Sweden is strong with all restrictions removed, there are downside risks related to persistent supply-chain bottlenecks in industry and surging energy prices.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

Japan | Kishida chases two elusive ends: growth and redistribution

Kishida chases two elusive ends: growth and redistribution

The pandemic and a fragile political base will provide little room for new PM Fumio Kishida to make drastic changes to economic policy. Our view is that with the backing of the central bank, Kishida’s government will come up with a huge supplementary budget to support the ongoing recovery.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

Japan | Kishida chases two elusive ends: growth and redistribution

Kishida chases two elusive ends: growth and redistribution

The pandemic and a fragile political base will provide little room for new PM Fumio Kishida to make drastic changes to economic policy. Our view is that with the backing of the central bank, Kishida’s government will come up with a huge supplementary budget to support the ongoing recovery.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

APAC | Recovery Tracker points to stalling momentum

rb image for apac_recovery_tracker_points_to_stalling_momentum

Our new monthly Asia Pacific Recovery Tracker shows overall momentum stalling in recent months amid the Delta-driven surge in Covid cases and tightened mobility restrictions in many parts of the region. Our tracker monitors three categories – health, activity, and financial market conditions – to gauge the overall strength of the recovery across 13 APAC economies.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

APAC | Recovery Tracker points to stalling momentum

rb image for apac_recovery_tracker_points_to_stalling_momentum

Our new monthly Asia Pacific Recovery Tracker shows overall momentum stalling in recent months amid the Delta-driven surge in Covid cases and tightened mobility restrictions in many parts of the region. Our tracker monitors three categories – health, activity, and financial market conditions – to gauge the overall strength of the recovery across 13 APAC economies.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

APAC | Weak growth limits inflation worries in the region

rb image for APAC Weak growth limits inflation worries in the region

Inflation has been elevated in many Asian economies for several months now. Indeed, the Bank of Korea and the Monetary Authority of Singapore have deemed the problem big enough to begin policy normalisation.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

APAC | Weak growth limits inflation worries in the region

rb image for APAC Weak growth limits inflation worries in the region

Inflation has been elevated in many Asian economies for several months now. Indeed, the Bank of Korea and the Monetary Authority of Singapore have deemed the problem big enough to begin policy normalisation.

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

Australia | A Re-Tail of Three Cities

a-re-tail-of-three-cities

The outlook for retail demand is mixed. As lockdowns ease, relaxed trading
restrictions will drive sales. However, this will also facilitate a substitution in
consumption from goods into services, providing a headwind to retail sales.

Retail sales have fallen sharply in locked down regions over the past three
months; turnover has declined steadily for three months in NSW, fallen
precipitously in the ACT in August, while worse is likely still to come in Victoria

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Research Briefing | Oct 20, 2021

Australia | A Re-Tail of Three Cities

a-re-tail-of-three-cities

The outlook for retail demand is mixed. As lockdowns ease, relaxed trading
restrictions will drive sales. However, this will also facilitate a substitution in
consumption from goods into services, providing a headwind to retail sales.

Retail sales have fallen sharply in locked down regions over the past three
months; turnover has declined steadily for three months in NSW, fallen
precipitously in the ACT in August, while worse is likely still to come in Victoria

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Toronto
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Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

Edmonton leads 2021 rebound, Toronto’s growth more moderate

Canadian Regional Outlook Q3 2021 - iPad

Canadian metros are rebounding strongly in 2021. We expect every metro to surpass their pre-pandemic GDP levels by the end of this year. We estimate that Edmonton has grown the fastest, at 11.2% for 2021 overall, whereas Toronto has underperformed the metro average with 5.6% GDP growth.

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Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

Edmonton leads 2021 rebound, Toronto’s growth more moderate

Canadian Regional Outlook Q3 2021 - iPad

Canadian metros are rebounding strongly in 2021. We expect every metro to surpass their pre-pandemic GDP levels by the end of this year. We estimate that Edmonton has grown the fastest, at 11.2% for 2021 overall, whereas Toronto has underperformed the metro average with 5.6% GDP growth.

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Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

Eurozone | 2022 French deficit at least €40bn wider than budget

Eurozone | 2022 French deficit at least €40bn wider than budget

We estimate France’s fiscal deficit in 2022 will be around €40bn wider than projected by the government in its draft budget, at 6.3% of GDP versus the official 4.8% target. This is due to additional fiscal support measures, the cost of the France 2030 investment plan, and differences in baseline assumptions.

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Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

Eurozone | 2022 French deficit at least €40bn wider than budget

Eurozone | 2022 French deficit at least €40bn wider than budget

We estimate France’s fiscal deficit in 2022 will be around €40bn wider than projected by the government in its draft budget, at 6.3% of GDP versus the official 4.8% target. This is due to additional fiscal support measures, the cost of the France 2030 investment plan, and differences in baseline assumptions.

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Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

UK | BoE looks to be headed for a policy mistake

UK | BoE looks to be headed for a policy mistake

Repeatedly hawkish comments from BoE Governor Bailey suggest that the MPC is preparing the ground for a rate rise. Consequently, we now forecast a 15bp hike in February and the policy rate to end 2022 at 0.5%.

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Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

UK | BoE looks to be headed for a policy mistake

UK | BoE looks to be headed for a policy mistake

Repeatedly hawkish comments from BoE Governor Bailey suggest that the MPC is preparing the ground for a rate rise. Consequently, we now forecast a 15bp hike in February and the policy rate to end 2022 at 0.5%.

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Canadian money
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Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

North America Housing affordability fell in Q2 and is likely to worsen

Housing affordability fell in Q2 and is likely to worsen - iPad

The Housing Affordability Indices (HAIs) show affordability deteriorated in nearly all US and Canadian metros in Q2 2021 as home price inflation outpaced income growth. Our consistent, cross-country framework points to more rapidly worsening affordability in Canada than in the US.

What you will learn:

  • Potential buyers will find homes most out of reach in Vancouver, Boise (Idaho), Toronto, Portland (Oregon), Hamilton (Ontario), Las Vegas, San Jose, and L.A.
  • Our national US index rose 3 points (pts) to 0.77 in Q2 from 0.74 in Q1, meaning prices were 23% lower than the median income households’ borrowing capacity. Higher mortgage rates and home prices more than offset stronger household incomes – a trend that will persist next year. 
  • Affordability in major metros in the neighboring Southwest & Mountains region will also decline. The HAIs of Phoenix, Denver, and Salt Lake City will rise 6pts on average through the end of 2022.

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Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

North America Housing affordability fell in Q2 and is likely to worsen

Housing affordability fell in Q2 and is likely to worsen - iPad

The Housing Affordability Indices (HAIs) show affordability deteriorated in nearly all US and Canadian metros in Q2 2021 as home price inflation outpaced income growth. Our consistent, cross-country framework points to more rapidly worsening affordability in Canada than in the US.

What you will learn:

  • Potential buyers will find homes most out of reach in Vancouver, Boise (Idaho), Toronto, Portland (Oregon), Hamilton (Ontario), Las Vegas, San Jose, and L.A.
  • Our national US index rose 3 points (pts) to 0.77 in Q2 from 0.74 in Q1, meaning prices were 23% lower than the median income households’ borrowing capacity. Higher mortgage rates and home prices more than offset stronger household incomes – a trend that will persist next year. 
  • Affordability in major metros in the neighboring Southwest & Mountains region will also decline. The HAIs of Phoenix, Denver, and Salt Lake City will rise 6pts on average through the end of 2022.

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We have cut our global GDP growth forecasts again, and now have reduced our 2021 estimate by a total of 0.7pp since June in response to the spread of Delta, supply-chain disruption, and higher inflation.

The Danish economy expanded 2.8% q/q in Q2, sending GDP comfortably above its pre-pandemic level. As a result, we have raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% from 3.4% previously, with less pandemic scarring now expected.

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Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

South Korea | Reopening will spur consumption and the recovery

South Korea - Reopening will spur consumption and the recovery

South Korea’s economy continues to recover despite the surge in Covid cases due to the Delta variant, and should enter 2022 on a firm economic footing. Next year, consumption and exports will be key drivers of growth.

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Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

South Korea | Reopening will spur consumption and the recovery

South Korea - Reopening will spur consumption and the recovery

South Korea’s economy continues to recover despite the surge in Covid cases due to the Delta variant, and should enter 2022 on a firm economic footing. Next year, consumption and exports will be key drivers of growth.

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Research Briefing | Oct 18, 2021

Finland | Economy remains resilient with growth seen, but downside risks are rising

Finland: Economy remains resilient with growth seen but downside risks are rising

Finland’s GDP in the last few quarters has been revised up slightly, lifting our growth forecast for 2021. High-frequency indicators show that the economy remains resilient amid mounting downside risks related to supply-chain bottlenecks and surging energy prices.

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Research Briefing | Oct 18, 2021

Finland | Economy remains resilient with growth seen, but downside risks are rising

Finland: Economy remains resilient with growth seen but downside risks are rising

Finland’s GDP in the last few quarters has been revised up slightly, lifting our growth forecast for 2021. High-frequency indicators show that the economy remains resilient amid mounting downside risks related to supply-chain bottlenecks and surging energy prices.

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Blog|15 October 2021

Why a US-China decoupling is not happening anytime soon

Why a US-China decoupling is not happening anytime soon

If you were to scan recent headlines, from submarine sales in the Pacific, to Chinese clampdowns on Evergrande and the Internet, to friction over the World Bank, you might think the US and China were poised on the verge of serious conflict—or even war.

There’s only one problem with this view of emerging conflict with China: it contradicts many of the economic facts on the ground.

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Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

Canada | Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic

Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic - iPad

A sustained pandemic with scarring effects would reduce Canada’s economic growth by close to 0.3ppts per annum between 2021 and 2026. Less vaccinated, resource-dependent provinces such as Saskatchewan and Alberta would be hurt most, according to analysis using our new Canadian Provincial and Territorial model, while provinces with a more favourable industry mix, such as most Atlantic provinces and B.C., would fare better.

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Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

Canada | Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic

Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic - iPad

A sustained pandemic with scarring effects would reduce Canada’s economic growth by close to 0.3ppts per annum between 2021 and 2026. Less vaccinated, resource-dependent provinces such as Saskatchewan and Alberta would be hurt most, according to analysis using our new Canadian Provincial and Territorial model, while provinces with a more favourable industry mix, such as most Atlantic provinces and B.C., would fare better.

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Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

MENA | UAE inflation; Israel re-opening; Saudi investment

UAE inflation; Israel re-opening; Saudi investment

Data for the UAE show inflation turned positive in August for the first time since December 2018, due to a 21.8% jump in entertainment and cultural services prices and a 1.2% rise in the cost of education. The CPI rose 0.6% y/y in August, up from a small decline in July. We still forecast average inflation of -0.5% for 2021 before a rise to 1.1% next year.

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Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

MENA | UAE inflation; Israel re-opening; Saudi investment

UAE inflation; Israel re-opening; Saudi investment

Data for the UAE show inflation turned positive in August for the first time since December 2018, due to a 21.8% jump in entertainment and cultural services prices and a 1.2% rise in the cost of education. The CPI rose 0.6% y/y in August, up from a small decline in July. We still forecast average inflation of -0.5% for 2021 before a rise to 1.1% next year.

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Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

UK | The economy continues to claw back Covid losses

UK | The economy continues to claw back Covid losses

The UK economy made more progress in August in returning to its pre-Covid size. But supply-side friction and pressure on spending power from higher inflation point to a more sluggish growth period ahead.

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Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

UK | The economy continues to claw back Covid losses

UK | The economy continues to claw back Covid losses

The UK economy made more progress in August in returning to its pre-Covid size. But supply-side friction and pressure on spending power from higher inflation point to a more sluggish growth period ahead.

Read more

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