US | Metro Economic Forecast: San Francisco
Saddled with high costs that has led to out-migration, San Francisco has recovered only 40% of its lost jobs since the start of the pandemic. Its net job decline of 8.3% from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021 ranks 46th of the top 50 metros, and it is not expected to recover all of its lost jobs until Q3 of 2022, later than most. Nevertheless, it is forecasted to see a healthy return of job growth beyond then, averaging 0.8% per year over the five years to 2027 which is above the forecasted US growth rate of 0.5%. Aside from restaurants and drinking places, a number of STEM-related sectors – tech and life sciences — will contribute to the job growth and, more so, to GDP growth over the next five years.
What you will learn:
- San Francisco’s GDP level exceeded its pre-pandemic peak in Q2 2021 and has had net growth of 2% since Q4 2019, most of this was fueled by the tech sector.
- The same is true for jobs; that is, although the media reports on the exodus of tech firms to low-cost locales, some industries have seen robust growth, despite the pandemic.
- Likewise, data processing and other information has added 5,300 jobs (+7%) over the last year despite the pandemic.
Tags:
Related Services

Post
Why tariffs won’t strangle Eurozone consumer spending
We think the damage from US tariffs on Eurozone consumer spending will be relatively mild. This is crucial for the Eurozone economic outlook, as the gradual rebound in private consumption is the only growth engine at present.
Find Out More
Post
Eurozone’s bund yields and the term premium to remain elevated
We expect 10-year bund yields to increase towards 2.8% by late 2026, as the term premium remains around 1.1% and the risk-neutral yield climbs above 1.7% over the next few quarters.
Find Out More