Eurozone | 2022 French deficit at least €40bn wider than budget
We estimate France’s fiscal deficit in 2022 will be around €40bn wider than projected by the government in its draft budget, at 6.3% of GDP versus the official 4.8% target. This is due to additional fiscal support measures, the cost of the France 2030 investment plan, and differences in baseline assumptions.
What you will learn:
- The additional fiscal easing will help smoothing the impact from the surge in energy prices.
- Our projection for public debt is higher than government estimates, with GDP peaking in 2024.
- However, the deficit gap could end up even wider in 2022, particularly if energy prices rise more than the government expects.
Inflation – not past the peak and easing will be gradual for France
France has dodged soaring price pressures better than its eurozone peers, but we think its inflation will fall more slowly.Find Out More
Answering the questions in our US forecasters’ inbox
In this new quarterly Research Briefing series, we answer the top five questions we've recently received from clients.Find Out More