Canada | Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic
A sustained pandemic with scarring effects would reduce Canada’s economic growth by close to 0.3ppts per annum between 2021 and 2026. Less vaccinated, resource-dependent provinces such as Saskatchewan and Alberta would be hurt most, according to analysis using our new Canadian Provincial and Territorial model, while provinces with a more favourable industry mix, such as most Atlantic provinces and B.C., would fare better.
What you will learn:
- Provincial economies less subject to variable foreign demand or services would manage better in a lingering pandemic.
- Strong vaccination rates and less strict restrictions would help many of Canada’s Atlantic provinces deal with a longer pandemic.
- In this briefing, long Covid denotes variants that would slow the trajectory of potential GDP, with negative impacts on consumer spending, labour supply, business investment, and weaker global demand.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Why an ageing population doesn’t mean soaring inflation
What’s the future for inflation? Joachim Nagel, the new president of Germany's central bank, believes the rapidly ageing global population will play a key role – ramping up pressure on prices in the medium term. While we agree slowing labour supply will stifle output growth, in his recent discussion Nagel failed to fully consider the demand side of the argument.
Find Out More
Post
Surging global food prices could drive eurozone core inflation higher
Along with energy prices, global food prices have emerged as a key driver of the eurozone's current inflationary surge. Like other advanced economies, eurozone countries tend to be less exposed to global food price fluctuations. But if persistent and combined with strong demand, high food prices could result in a higher pass-through to core inflation.
Find Out More