Canada | Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic
A sustained pandemic with scarring effects would reduce Canada’s economic growth by close to 0.3ppts per annum between 2021 and 2026. Less vaccinated, resource-dependent provinces such as Saskatchewan and Alberta would be hurt most, according to analysis using our new Canadian Provincial and Territorial model, while provinces with a more favourable industry mix, such as most Atlantic provinces and B.C., would fare better.
What you will learn:
- Provincial economies less subject to variable foreign demand or services would manage better in a lingering pandemic.
- Strong vaccination rates and less strict restrictions would help many of Canada’s Atlantic provinces deal with a longer pandemic.
- In this briefing, long Covid denotes variants that would slow the trajectory of potential GDP, with negative impacts on consumer spending, labour supply, business investment, and weaker global demand.
UK: Housing market on course for a soft landing
The recent sharp fall in mortgage rates and continued strong growth in wages has significantly reduced the scale of the UK's housing affordability problem. Consequently, the risk of a steep correction in house prices is much lower than it appeared a few months ago. We also expect the recent steady pickup in housing market activity to continue.Find Out More
Global Industry: Energy transition will transform mining—promise and pitfalls
We expect that demand for energy transition-related critical minerals will grow significantly in the next decades even in the absence of rapid progress required to achieve net zero.Find Out More