Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

Canada | Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic

Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic - iPad

A sustained pandemic with scarring effects would reduce Canada’s economic growth by close to 0.3ppts per annum between 2021 and 2026. Less vaccinated, resource-dependent provinces such as Saskatchewan and Alberta would be hurt most, according to analysis using our new Canadian Provincial and Territorial model, while provinces with a more favourable industry mix, such as most Atlantic provinces and B.C., would fare better.

What you will learn:

  • Provincial economies less subject to variable foreign demand or services would manage better in a lingering pandemic. 
  • Strong vaccination rates and less strict restrictions would help many of Canada’s Atlantic provinces deal with a longer pandemic. 
  • In this briefing, long Covid denotes variants that would slow the trajectory of potential GDP, with negative impacts on consumer spending, labour supply, business investment, and weaker global demand.
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