Research Briefing | Oct 15, 2021

Canada | Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic

Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic - iPad

A sustained pandemic with scarring effects would reduce Canada’s economic growth by close to 0.3ppts per annum between 2021 and 2026. Less vaccinated, resource-dependent provinces such as Saskatchewan and Alberta would be hurt most, according to analysis using our new Canadian Provincial and Territorial model, while provinces with a more favourable industry mix, such as most Atlantic provinces and B.C., would fare better.

What you will learn:

  • Provincial economies less subject to variable foreign demand or services would manage better in a lingering pandemic. 
  • Strong vaccination rates and less strict restrictions would help many of Canada’s Atlantic provinces deal with a longer pandemic. 
  • In this briefing, long Covid denotes variants that would slow the trajectory of potential GDP, with negative impacts on consumer spending, labour supply, business investment, and weaker global demand.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Cargos with flags of the US and the Eurozone

Post

How would the Eurozone economy fare under a 30% US tariff?

A 30% tariff would send the Eurozone economy to the edge of recession, with growth stagnating over the coming quarters.

Find Out More

Post

What is the endgame for US tariffs?

We think it's likely that high and broad-based tariffs are here to stay because, of all the purported goals of trade policy, they're proving most successful at raising revenue.

Find Out More