Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021

Edmonton leads 2021 rebound, Toronto’s growth more moderate

Canadian Regional Outlook Q3 2021 - iPad

Canadian metros are rebounding strongly in 2021. We expect every metro to surpass their pre-pandemic GDP levels by the end of this year. We estimate that Edmonton has grown the fastest, at 11.2% for 2021 overall, whereas Toronto has underperformed the metro average with 5.6% GDP growth.
What you will learn:

  • These increases are despite a third wave of Covid-19 in April and another wave ongoing. Differing provincial lockdown measures are playing key roles in each metro’s path to recovery.
  • The fastest growing metros (Edmonton and Calgary) are in Alberta, where most restrictions have been lifted, and the slowest growing metro (Winnipeg) is in Manitoba, which had the most stringent restrictions for much of the summer. 
  • In the medium term, we expect government support for the oil industry and high global demand for oil to cause Calgary and Edmonton to lead all metros in GDP and employment growth. 

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