Research Briefing | Oct 27, 2021

Norway | Forecast for 2021 downgraded slightly, but GDP will still rebound strongly in Q3

Ipad Frame -Norway-Forecast-for-2021-downgraded-slightly-but-GDP-will-still-rebound-strongly-in-Q3

We have lowered our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast to 3.9% from 4.1% previously after a softer-than-expected expansion in July. GDP rose by 1.1% m/m in August due to a very strong month for fishing. After a solid rebound in Q3, we expect growth to moderate but remain firm.

What you will learn:

  • Supply headwinds and high inflation are the main headwinds, with soaring electricity prices posing a downside risk to the consumption outlook.
  • Consumption will rebound very strongly in Q3 as services spending rises sharply, while goods spending will hold firm.
  • Higher energy prices have led to increased extraction of oil and natural gas in the past few months, supporting overall industrial production.

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