Research Briefing | Oct 27, 2021

Norway | Forecast for 2021 downgraded slightly, but GDP will still rebound strongly in Q3

Ipad Frame -Norway-Forecast-for-2021-downgraded-slightly-but-GDP-will-still-rebound-strongly-in-Q3

We have lowered our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast to 3.9% from 4.1% previously after a softer-than-expected expansion in July. GDP rose by 1.1% m/m in August due to a very strong month for fishing. After a solid rebound in Q3, we expect growth to moderate but remain firm.

What you will learn:

  • Supply headwinds and high inflation are the main headwinds, with soaring electricity prices posing a downside risk to the consumption outlook.
  • Consumption will rebound very strongly in Q3 as services spending rises sharply, while goods spending will hold firm.
  • Higher energy prices have led to increased extraction of oil and natural gas in the past few months, supporting overall industrial production.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Names will never hurt me –EM monetary credibility remains intact

Emerging market (EM) central banks' credibility to restrain inflation over the medium-term horizon remains intact despite the tests it's been subjected to in an age of supply shocks and massive income disappointments – and despite name-calling by some banks' political masters.

Find Out More

Post

Tight labour market and firm pay growth will worry the MPC

Contentious new Labour Force Survey data implies the UK jobs market was much tighter in H2 2023 than we previously thought, while our own sentiment data developed with Penta suggests conditions are little changed in early-2024.

Find Out More