Japan | Kishida chases two elusive ends: growth and redistribution
The pandemic and a fragile political base will provide little room for new PM Fumio Kishida to make drastic changes to economic policy. Our view is that with the backing of the central bank, Kishida’s government will come up with a huge supplementary budget to support the ongoing recovery.
What you will learn:
- The unease in financial markets – that the new prime minister will reverse Abenomics’ pro-growth and “neoliberalism” policies along with its pro-market reforms – is overblown in our opinion.
- Kishida has called for a “new type of Japanese capitalism” and argues income redistribution is needed to rebuild the middle class and promote growth. Yet, his advocacy of fiscal discipline appears to be at odds with greater dynamism.
- We believe Kishida’s equivocal position aimed at both growth and redistribution will prevent him from taking meaningful measures to promote expansion.
Tags:
Related Services

Post
Emerging Markets forecast issues – Policy easing faces stronger headwinds
In our latest monthly forecast, we raised our aggregate 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) by 0.1ppt to 4.1%. We raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for China by 0.1ppt to 5.2% after a slight outperformance in Q3, consistent with the official growth target of “around 5%". We maintain our 2024 aggregate EM growth forecast at 3.6%.
Find Out More
Post
London’s buildings stand in the way of rapid net zero
Over a third of London’s greenhouse gases arise from heating and lighting the capital’s residential buildings. Removing those emissions by 2050, let alone 2030, looks challenging.
Find Out More