Research Briefing | Oct 19, 2021
UK | BoE looks to be headed for a policy mistake
Repeatedly hawkish comments from BoE Governor Bailey suggest that the MPC is preparing the ground for a rate rise. Consequently, we now forecast a 15bp hike in February and the policy rate to end 2022 at 0.5%.
What you will learn:
- We think the rise in UK inflation is mainly due to global developments that monetary policy can’t influence.
- We think tightening monetary policy now would be a mistake, albeit one with only a minor impact.
- Even allowing for the hawkish rhetoric, we think expectations of a rate hike at the next meeting are too aggressive.
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