Nordic outlook is bright, but downside risks are rising
The Nordic recovery is on track despite some surprises in the Q2 GDP components and rising downside risks. Real goods exports underperformed given the rebound in external demand, reflecting stress in supply chains and input shortages for the region’s trade-sensitive economies.
What you will learn:
- Nordic export order books are among the highest in Europe, so the external sector, which is reliant on industries most affected by the shortages and bottlenecks, should make up for the temporary weakness once they ease.
- The resilience of overall industrial production and fixed investment has provided important support.
- While growth in industry is likely to moderate and be subject to temporary setbacks, the long-term outlook remains solid as the backlog of orders is eliminated and inventories are replenished.
Tags:
Related Services

Post
BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.
Find Out More
Post
China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods
We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).
Find Out More