Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

US | Metro Economic Forecast: New York

Metro Economic Forecast New York September 2021 - iPad

Still lagging its peers, New York has recovered only 49% of its lost jobs since the start of the pandemic. Its net job decline of 9.1% from Q1 2020 to Q2 2021 ranks 47th of the top 50 metros. New York is expected to recover all of its lost jobs in Q3 of 2023, later than most. New York is expected to see average annual job growth of 0.5% over the five years to 2027, on par with the expected US job growth rate. Industries expected to contribute to the growth include restaurants and drinking places with 23.4% of the total jobs followed by home health care with 20.6% and education with 14.2%. The finance sector is expected to recover in 2022 but then remain flat through 2025.

What you will learn:

  • New York’s GDP shows a net decline of 0.9% from the start of the pandemic. It is expected to exceed its pre-pandemic peak in Q4 2021 and grow 1.9% per year, on average, over the five years to 2027, which is just below the US expected growth rate of 2%. Growth will be led by real estate, data processing, and professional services.
  • New York has taken the brunt of the losses from both the drop in tourism as well as the flight of office workers from its dense office sector. New York has shed 176,900 office jobs (-6.5%) since the start of the pandemic. This accounts for 19% of total job losses. 
  • Google’s recent purchase of St. John’s Terminal in Hudson Square served as an endorsement of the downtown neighborhood’s return as a preferred locale for tech firms and followed high-profile leases for Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and Netflix prior to the pandemic. Tech will fuel GDP and job growth over the next five years.

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