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Research Briefing | Oct 8, 2021

China | Growth outlook weakens, despite expected policy easing

China Growth outlook weakens, despite expected policy easing

We’ve cut our China growth forecast for Q4 to 3.6% y/y from 5%, and for 2022 to 5.4% from 5.8%. This is despite our expectation of a shift in economic policy in Q4 to support growth.

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Research Briefing | Oct 8, 2021

China | Growth outlook weakens, despite expected policy easing

China Growth outlook weakens, despite expected policy easing

We’ve cut our China growth forecast for Q4 to 3.6% y/y from 5%, and for 2022 to 5.4% from 5.8%. This is despite our expectation of a shift in economic policy in Q4 to support growth.

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Research Briefing | Oct 7, 2021

UK | Inflation to peak higher, but this is not the start of a new high inflation era

Inflation to peak higher, but this is not the start of a new high inflation era

Inflation in the UK is set to peak higher for longer than we previously expected. But structural factors plus the likelihood that supply problems will eventually be resolved mean we still think the spike will prove transitory.
We now think that CPI inflation will peak over 4% and remain above 3% until H2 2022. Rising petrol prices in the near-term and another hefty rise in energy bills likely next April will fuel the increase.

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Research Briefing | Oct 7, 2021

UK | Inflation to peak higher, but this is not the start of a new high inflation era

Inflation to peak higher, but this is not the start of a new high inflation era

Inflation in the UK is set to peak higher for longer than we previously expected. But structural factors plus the likelihood that supply problems will eventually be resolved mean we still think the spike will prove transitory.
We now think that CPI inflation will peak over 4% and remain above 3% until H2 2022. Rising petrol prices in the near-term and another hefty rise in energy bills likely next April will fuel the increase.

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Research Briefing | Oct 5, 2021

Global | Risk metrics show worsening growth/inflation trade-off

Global | Risk metrics show worsening growth/inflation trade-off

The global economic outlook appears to be deteriorating, according to our quarterly review of alternative measures of economic risk. Most of the metrics now point to weaker risk-weighted growth in 2021, with no catch-up in 2022.
The metrics we reviewed broadly support our overall risk assessment. Almost all agree with our judgement that risks to our baseline growth forecast lie to the downside. Most also align with our view that upside risks are still material, with evidence from past forecast errors suggesting notable upside potential.

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Research Briefing | Oct 5, 2021

Global | Risk metrics show worsening growth/inflation trade-off

Global | Risk metrics show worsening growth/inflation trade-off

The global economic outlook appears to be deteriorating, according to our quarterly review of alternative measures of economic risk. Most of the metrics now point to weaker risk-weighted growth in 2021, with no catch-up in 2022.
The metrics we reviewed broadly support our overall risk assessment. Almost all agree with our judgement that risks to our baseline growth forecast lie to the downside. Most also align with our view that upside risks are still material, with evidence from past forecast errors suggesting notable upside potential.

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Research Briefing | Oct 5, 2021

Global | EV transition will turbocharge demand for electricity

Global | EV transition will turbocharge demand for electricity

Electricity demand from the road vehicle sector is set to accelerate sharply in the coming decades, according to our new forecasting methodology. We project the road sector’s share of electricity demand globally will climb from less than 0.5% today to 7% in 2050, with Europe and China leading the way.
Our methodology builds upon detailed national electric-vehicle sales projections provided by our automotive partner, LMC Automotive, to construct forecasts of road vehicle electricity demand for the 17 largest car markets.

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Research Briefing | Oct 5, 2021

Global | EV transition will turbocharge demand for electricity

Global | EV transition will turbocharge demand for electricity

Electricity demand from the road vehicle sector is set to accelerate sharply in the coming decades, according to our new forecasting methodology. We project the road sector’s share of electricity demand globally will climb from less than 0.5% today to 7% in 2050, with Europe and China leading the way.
Our methodology builds upon detailed national electric-vehicle sales projections provided by our automotive partner, LMC Automotive, to construct forecasts of road vehicle electricity demand for the 17 largest car markets.

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Research Briefing | Oct 5, 2021

The macroeconomics of climate change mitigation

Global | The macroeconomics of climate change mitigation

Stringent mitigation scenarios aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5°C are right at the edge of what is economically feasible and will require a radical transformation of the whole economy, not just the energy supply sector.
However, the macroeconomics of that transition are highly uncertain, with many different moving parts. While some studies see the move away from fossil fuels as negative for growth, advocates of green development have argued that the investment needed for the clean energy transition will boost jobs and growth.

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Research Briefing | Oct 5, 2021

The macroeconomics of climate change mitigation

Global | The macroeconomics of climate change mitigation

Stringent mitigation scenarios aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5°C are right at the edge of what is economically feasible and will require a radical transformation of the whole economy, not just the energy supply sector.
However, the macroeconomics of that transition are highly uncertain, with many different moving parts. While some studies see the move away from fossil fuels as negative for growth, advocates of green development have argued that the investment needed for the clean energy transition will boost jobs and growth.

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Research Briefing | Oct 5, 2021

London Monitor | London’s employment set to rise this year

London Monitor | London’s employment set to rise this year

Continued strength in the latest labour market data has led us to strengthen our London employment forecast. We now expect workplace based employment to rise by 0.2% in 2021 (up from a 0.2% decline in our
previous forecast). Labour Force Survey data show a 0.5 percentage point
increase in London’s resident employment rate to 74.9% in May July 2021. 

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Research Briefing | Oct 5, 2021

London Monitor | London’s employment set to rise this year

London Monitor | London’s employment set to rise this year

Continued strength in the latest labour market data has led us to strengthen our London employment forecast. We now expect workplace based employment to rise by 0.2% in 2021 (up from a 0.2% decline in our
previous forecast). Labour Force Survey data show a 0.5 percentage point
increase in London’s resident employment rate to 74.9% in May July 2021. 

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Research Briefing | Oct 1, 2021

MENA | Higher oil income to propel GCC diversification efforts

Higher oil income to propel GCC diversification efforts

The GCC recovery built momentum in Q3, thanks to vaccine progress, easing of health restrictions, and higher oil output. However, the bloc’s GDP will only
reach its pre-pandemic level in Q1 2022, lagging other EM regions.

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Research Briefing | Oct 1, 2021

MENA | Higher oil income to propel GCC diversification efforts

Higher oil income to propel GCC diversification efforts

The GCC recovery built momentum in Q3, thanks to vaccine progress, easing of health restrictions, and higher oil output. However, the bloc’s GDP will only
reach its pre-pandemic level in Q1 2022, lagging other EM regions.

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Research Briefing | Oct 1, 2021

UK | A stronger base, but growing headwinds

Copy of Ipad Frame (12)-1

Revisions in Q2’s national accounts showed the economy responding more strongly to exiting lockdown than initially thought. At the same time, the stock of ‘excess’ savings held by households, while still sizeable, was revised down.

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Research Briefing | Oct 1, 2021

UK | A stronger base, but growing headwinds

Copy of Ipad Frame (12)-1

Revisions in Q2’s national accounts showed the economy responding more strongly to exiting lockdown than initially thought. At the same time, the stock of ‘excess’ savings held by households, while still sizeable, was revised down.

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Research Briefing | Oct 1, 2021

Norway’s central bank begins the rate hiking cycle amid strong growth outlook

Ipad Frame-Norway-Central-bank-begins-the-rate-hiking-cycle-amid-strong-growth-outlook

Our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 4.1%. With all domestic restrictions eased and the pandemic largely under control, the economy will rebound strongly this year.

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Research Briefing | Oct 1, 2021

Norway’s central bank begins the rate hiking cycle amid strong growth outlook

Ipad Frame-Norway-Central-bank-begins-the-rate-hiking-cycle-amid-strong-growth-outlook

Our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 4.1%. With all domestic restrictions eased and the pandemic largely under control, the economy will rebound strongly this year.

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Research Briefing | Oct 1, 2021

Global | Evergrande matters, but it’s not a ‘Lehman moment’

Ipad Frame-Evergrande-matters-but-its-not-a-Lehman-moment

While the potential collapse of Chinese property firm Evergrande matters, it doesn’t signal a ‘Lehman moment’ that might spark global financial turmoil. Its main effects are likely to be contained within China, with any global spillovers more likely to spread through the real economy than financial channels.

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Research Briefing | Oct 1, 2021

Global | Evergrande matters, but it’s not a ‘Lehman moment’

Ipad Frame-Evergrande-matters-but-its-not-a-Lehman-moment

While the potential collapse of Chinese property firm Evergrande matters, it doesn’t signal a ‘Lehman moment’ that might spark global financial turmoil. Its main effects are likely to be contained within China, with any global spillovers more likely to spread through the real economy than financial channels.

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Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2021

MENA | Coronavirus tracker for the GCC – September update

Coronavirus tracker for the GCC – September update

Expo 2020 starts in the UAE on October 1 and will provide a significant boost to the economy. Although international visitors may be lower than initially hoped numbers should rise over the duration of the Expo if travel restrictions ease around the world. Last year, visitors were willing to come to Dubai when able to.

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Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2021

MENA | Coronavirus tracker for the GCC – September update

Coronavirus tracker for the GCC – September update

Expo 2020 starts in the UAE on October 1 and will provide a significant boost to the economy. Although international visitors may be lower than initially hoped numbers should rise over the duration of the Expo if travel restrictions ease around the world. Last year, visitors were willing to come to Dubai when able to.

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Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2021

Australia | A greener economy is becoming inevitable

A greener economy is becoming inevitable - iPad

The Australian government is facing growing pressure on several fronts to solidify lower carbon emission targets. If left unchecked, these pressures could translate to material headwinds for the financial sector and the real economy.

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Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2021

Australia | A greener economy is becoming inevitable

A greener economy is becoming inevitable - iPad

The Australian government is facing growing pressure on several fronts to solidify lower carbon emission targets. If left unchecked, these pressures could translate to material headwinds for the financial sector and the real economy.

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Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker shakes off Labor Day lull

US Recovery Tracker shakes off Labor Day lull - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker strengthened in the week ended September 17, rising 0.3ppts to 96.1, but remaining below its early summer peak as it continues to be restrained by health and supply concerns. Stronger employment and increased mobility drove the advance, while mildly stronger production and looser financial conditions supported the gain.

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Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker shakes off Labor Day lull

US Recovery Tracker shakes off Labor Day lull - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker strengthened in the week ended September 17, rising 0.3ppts to 96.1, but remaining below its early summer peak as it continues to be restrained by health and supply concerns. Stronger employment and increased mobility drove the advance, while mildly stronger production and looser financial conditions supported the gain.

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A report on the potential socio-economic benefits of the cultivated meat sector in conjunction with leading UK producer Ivy Farm Technologies.

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Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2021

Indonesia | Recovering demand to power credit growth in 2022

Ipad Frame (69)

Private bank credit contracted 2.7% in 2020 in Indonesia and continued to decline on a year-on-year basis through most of H1 this year. The credit crunch has occurred despite a 150bps reduction in the policy rate since the onset of the pandemic and a liquidity injection of around 4.5% of GDP by Bank Indonesia.

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Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2021

Indonesia | Recovering demand to power credit growth in 2022

Ipad Frame (69)

Private bank credit contracted 2.7% in 2020 in Indonesia and continued to decline on a year-on-year basis through most of H1 this year. The credit crunch has occurred despite a 150bps reduction in the policy rate since the onset of the pandemic and a liquidity injection of around 4.5% of GDP by Bank Indonesia.

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European cities short-term economic recovery
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Research Briefing | Sep 29, 2021

European cities short-term recovery to be followed by long-term realignments

Ipad Frame-European-Cities-Short-term-recovery-to-be-followed-by-long-term-realignment

Despite another shift in the Covid-19 situation across Europe, national governments have largely resisted imposing new lockdowns, and our short-term forecast is now slightly stronger than in June. In the long term, eastern European cities will lead GDP growth, followed by a group of mainly northern cities. We expect southern cities to generally underperform.

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Research Briefing | Sep 29, 2021

European cities short-term recovery to be followed by long-term realignments

Ipad Frame-European-Cities-Short-term-recovery-to-be-followed-by-long-term-realignment

Despite another shift in the Covid-19 situation across Europe, national governments have largely resisted imposing new lockdowns, and our short-term forecast is now slightly stronger than in June. In the long term, eastern European cities will lead GDP growth, followed by a group of mainly northern cities. We expect southern cities to generally underperform.

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Research Briefing | Sep 28, 2021

For the UK economy, catastrophising can wait

For the UK economy, catastrophising can wait

A glance at recent headlines in the UK could leave the reader feeling beleaguered. An economic recovery slowing to a crawl, the prospect of a surge in household energy bills, a lack of wind to generate power and motorists responding to reports of a shortage of tanker drivers by draining petrol pumps dry. So the tongue-in-cheek question posed recently by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the Oxford Economics-sponsored Society of Professional Economists annual dinner: “when is the plague of locusts due?”, may strike some as more serious than it was intended.

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Research Briefing | Sep 28, 2021

For the UK economy, catastrophising can wait

For the UK economy, catastrophising can wait

A glance at recent headlines in the UK could leave the reader feeling beleaguered. An economic recovery slowing to a crawl, the prospect of a surge in household energy bills, a lack of wind to generate power and motorists responding to reports of a shortage of tanker drivers by draining petrol pumps dry. So the tongue-in-cheek question posed recently by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the Oxford Economics-sponsored Society of Professional Economists annual dinner: “when is the plague of locusts due?”, may strike some as more serious than it was intended.

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Research Briefing | Sep 28, 2021

UK | Has the pandemic ‘levelled up’ or ‘levelled down’ the UK?

UK | Has the pandemic ‘levelled up’ or ‘levelled down’ the UK?

High-frequency data on numbers of employees and median pay suggest that the Covid-19 pandemic has not made the ‘north-south divide’ wider. Our short term employment forecasts reinforce that. But in terms of broader metrics such as personal financial hardship, the levelling-up challenge has probably got harder.

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Research Briefing | Sep 28, 2021

UK | Has the pandemic ‘levelled up’ or ‘levelled down’ the UK?

UK | Has the pandemic ‘levelled up’ or ‘levelled down’ the UK?

High-frequency data on numbers of employees and median pay suggest that the Covid-19 pandemic has not made the ‘north-south divide’ wider. Our short term employment forecasts reinforce that. But in terms of broader metrics such as personal financial hardship, the levelling-up challenge has probably got harder.

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Research Briefing | Sep 28, 2021

Eurozone | Energy prices put another dent in near-term recovery

Ipad Frame-Eurozone-Energy-prices-put-another-dent-in-near-term-recovery

The surge in European gas and electricity prices over recent months pushed energy prices to an all-time high in August, amplifying a pickup in inflation and pointing the Q4 2021 headline rate towards 4%. This will squeeze households’ disposable income, push up industry’s already proliferating cost base, and possibly accelerate the withdrawal of stimulus by the ECB next year.

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Research Briefing | Sep 28, 2021

Eurozone | Energy prices put another dent in near-term recovery

Ipad Frame-Eurozone-Energy-prices-put-another-dent-in-near-term-recovery

The surge in European gas and electricity prices over recent months pushed energy prices to an all-time high in August, amplifying a pickup in inflation and pointing the Q4 2021 headline rate towards 4%. This will squeeze households’ disposable income, push up industry’s already proliferating cost base, and possibly accelerate the withdrawal of stimulus by the ECB next year.

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Research Briefing | Sep 27, 2021

UK | MPC continues to shift in a hawkish direction

UK | MPC continues to shift in a hawkish direction

The minutes of September’s MPC meeting were more hawkish, leading markets to price in a rate hike early next year. But we think markets are getting ahead of themselves. Most MPC members still believe high inflation will prove transitory, while growth in demand is clearly continuing to soften.

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Research Briefing | Sep 27, 2021

UK | MPC continues to shift in a hawkish direction

UK | MPC continues to shift in a hawkish direction

The minutes of September’s MPC meeting were more hawkish, leading markets to price in a rate hike early next year. But we think markets are getting ahead of themselves. Most MPC members still believe high inflation will prove transitory, while growth in demand is clearly continuing to soften.

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