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Research Briefing | Sep 27, 2021

Germany | Inconclusive election triggers long-lasting horse-trading

Ipad Frame-Germany-Inconclusive-election-triggers-long-lasting-horse-trading

The federal election has seen a further fragmentation of the vote, which has left Germany with an inconclusive result. A protracted government formation is likely as the centre-right and centre-left blocks try to convince one party from the other side of the political spectrum to join an untested three-party coalition.

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Research Briefing | Sep 27, 2021

Germany | Inconclusive election triggers long-lasting horse-trading

Ipad Frame-Germany-Inconclusive-election-triggers-long-lasting-horse-trading

The federal election has seen a further fragmentation of the vote, which has left Germany with an inconclusive result. A protracted government formation is likely as the centre-right and centre-left blocks try to convince one party from the other side of the political spectrum to join an untested three-party coalition.

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Blog|27 September 2021

Society for Professional Economists Annual Dinner 2021

Society for Professional Economists Annual Dinner 2021

In celebration of our 40th anniversary, we were proud to sponsor the Society for Professional Economists Annual Dinner. John Walker, Chairman and Founder and Adrian Cooper, CEO of Oxford Economics, and several Oxford Economics senior directors were in attendance.

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Research Briefing | Sep 27, 2021

APAC: Delta-related drags in 2021 but stronger 2022 in view

cover image of the report

Asia’s economic performance over the next six to nine months will continue to be hugely influenced by developments in the pandemic, probably more so than in US, Europe and Latin America. This reflects China’s ‘zero tolerance’ approach to the virus (with a similar strategy pursued by Taiwan and New Zealand) and the region’s limited progress on rolling out vaccines.

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Research Briefing | Sep 27, 2021

APAC: Delta-related drags in 2021 but stronger 2022 in view

cover image of the report

Asia’s economic performance over the next six to nine months will continue to be hugely influenced by developments in the pandemic, probably more so than in US, Europe and Latin America. This reflects China’s ‘zero tolerance’ approach to the virus (with a similar strategy pursued by Taiwan and New Zealand) and the region’s limited progress on rolling out vaccines.

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Research Briefing | Sep 27, 2021

APAC | Asia stronger today than in 2013 ahead of Fed taper

cover image of the report

Notwithstanding Covid-related risks, we expect Asian currencies will show resilience in the face of tighter US monetary policy, particularly when compared to the 2013 taper tantrum.

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Research Briefing | Sep 27, 2021

APAC | Asia stronger today than in 2013 ahead of Fed taper

cover image of the report

Notwithstanding Covid-related risks, we expect Asian currencies will show resilience in the face of tighter US monetary policy, particularly when compared to the 2013 taper tantrum.

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Research Briefing | Sep 24, 2021

India | Why the jump in household savings won’t be permanent

cover image of research briefing

Indian households have hoarded savings through the Covid crisis, although to a lesser extent than the rest of the world. Emerging from the pandemic, the damage wreaked on the economy raises the possibility that households could turn more precautionary permanently. But our analysis suggests otherwise.

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Research Briefing | Sep 24, 2021

India | Why the jump in household savings won’t be permanent

cover image of research briefing

Indian households have hoarded savings through the Covid crisis, although to a lesser extent than the rest of the world. Emerging from the pandemic, the damage wreaked on the economy raises the possibility that households could turn more precautionary permanently. But our analysis suggests otherwise.

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Research Briefing | Sep 24, 2021

APAC | Duelling currencies – the rise of the renminbi in Asia forex

2-Sep-24-2021-06-00-36-59-AM

The role of the RMB is greatest where China is a major destination for manufacturing exports, suggesting that the degree of trade integration with China is key in driving co-movement with the RMB. The RMB has become the most important anchor for the KRW, TWD, SGD, THB, and MYR. In the case of the INR, IDR, and PHP, the modest importance of manufacturing exports to China (measured as a share of GDP) explains the small role of the RMB.

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Research Briefing | Sep 24, 2021

APAC | Duelling currencies – the rise of the renminbi in Asia forex

2-Sep-24-2021-06-00-36-59-AM

The role of the RMB is greatest where China is a major destination for manufacturing exports, suggesting that the degree of trade integration with China is key in driving co-movement with the RMB. The RMB has become the most important anchor for the KRW, TWD, SGD, THB, and MYR. In the case of the INR, IDR, and PHP, the modest importance of manufacturing exports to China (measured as a share of GDP) explains the small role of the RMB.

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Research Briefing | Sep 23, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Inflation pressures bubble up

The recent broad-based rises in core inflation across a range of advanced economies has reopened the debate as to whether this year’s rise in inflation really is a purely transitory phenomenon.

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Research Briefing | Sep 23, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Inflation pressures bubble up

The recent broad-based rises in core inflation across a range of advanced economies has reopened the debate as to whether this year’s rise in inflation really is a purely transitory phenomenon.

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Research Briefing | Sep 22, 2021

Supply-chain headwinds pummel the US economy

Supply-chain headwinds pummel the economy

Our new supply-chain stress indicator reveals the US economy faces escalating supply-side challenges. Transportation logjams are the greatest point of stress, but limited spare domestic production capacity, low inventories, sharply higher input costs (most acute for raw materials), and labor challenges are making it increasingly hard for supply to keep up with demand.

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Research Briefing | Sep 22, 2021

Supply-chain headwinds pummel the US economy

Supply-chain headwinds pummel the economy

Our new supply-chain stress indicator reveals the US economy faces escalating supply-side challenges. Transportation logjams are the greatest point of stress, but limited spare domestic production capacity, low inventories, sharply higher input costs (most acute for raw materials), and labor challenges are making it increasingly hard for supply to keep up with demand.

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Blog|22 September 2021

Cities have been hit especially hard by Covid-19 – but they will bounce back

James Bottomley
James Bottomley
Senior Economist, Cities & Regions
Cities have been hit especially hard by Covid-19 – but they will bounce back

Many major cities around the world—especially in North America and Europe—have been hit disproportionately hard by Covid-19 compared with their national economies. The charts below show how employment in Amsterdam, London, New York and San Francisco has underperformed relative to national averages.

Employment in four major global cities relative to national averages. Q4 2019 = 100

cities world post covid

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Research Briefing | Sep 22, 2021

Japan | Inflation tanked, but new premier won’t alter BOJ course

Report - Inflation tanked, but new premier won't alter BOJ course

The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting, maintaining short-term and long-term interest rates at current levels. Regarding market operations, government bond purchases remain limited and no ETF purchases have been made since mid-June.

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Research Briefing | Sep 22, 2021

Japan | Inflation tanked, but new premier won’t alter BOJ course

Report - Inflation tanked, but new premier won't alter BOJ course

The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting, maintaining short-term and long-term interest rates at current levels. Regarding market operations, government bond purchases remain limited and no ETF purchases have been made since mid-June.

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This study compares pay at franchised and non-franchised firms; uncovers areas where franchising supports business owners; and evaluates how franchisees are embedded in their local communities.

Blog|21 September 2021

“Vaccine apartheid” and Western influence in Africa

Francois Conradie
Francois Conradie
Lead Political Economist, OE Africa
“Vaccine apartheid” and Western influence in Africa

“Since December 2020, the EU has exported 700 million vaccine doses to 130 countries worldwide,” European Union (EU) Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted on August 31, and continued: “The EU takes its global responsibility seriously.”

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Research Briefing | Sep 21, 2021

Australia | Alternate recovery paths shaped by key risks

alternativerecovery

Vaccine programs across the world are well underway and should enable a sustained and meaningful easing of restrictions in late-2021 and early-2022. But as we have seen in Australia, vaccine rollouts have not been immune to supply disruptions and efficacy concerns, which are threatening to keep economies and international borders restricted for longer. Using our Global Economic Model, we consider three alternate recovery scenarios.

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Research Briefing | Sep 21, 2021

Australia | Alternate recovery paths shaped by key risks

alternativerecovery

Vaccine programs across the world are well underway and should enable a sustained and meaningful easing of restrictions in late-2021 and early-2022. But as we have seen in Australia, vaccine rollouts have not been immune to supply disruptions and efficacy concerns, which are threatening to keep economies and international borders restricted for longer. Using our Global Economic Model, we consider three alternate recovery scenarios.

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Historic city of Sao Luis, Maranhao State, Brazil
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Research Briefing | Sep 21, 2021

Five themes that will shape Latin America’s outlook in 2022

Latin America | Five themes that will shape the region’s outlook in 2022

We expect Latin America to return to low trend growth in 2022, as policy support is withdrawn and the easy gains from the reopening fade. LatAm’s recovery will continue to lag the rest of the world and remain uneven across countries. A disorderly withdrawal of fiscal support, however, could tip economies back into recession or lead to social unrest. To ensure borrowing costs do not rise further and that fiscal credibility does not come under questioning, countries will need to start running primary budget surpluses.

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Research Briefing | Sep 21, 2021

Five themes that will shape Latin America’s outlook in 2022

Latin America | Five themes that will shape the region’s outlook in 2022

We expect Latin America to return to low trend growth in 2022, as policy support is withdrawn and the easy gains from the reopening fade. LatAm’s recovery will continue to lag the rest of the world and remain uneven across countries. A disorderly withdrawal of fiscal support, however, could tip economies back into recession or lead to social unrest. To ensure borrowing costs do not rise further and that fiscal credibility does not come under questioning, countries will need to start running primary budget surpluses.

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Research Briefing | Sep 21, 2021

China | Evergrande’s restructuring is key to containing damage

Evergrandes restructuring is key to containing damage_Page_1

The Evergrande saga has shone a spotlight on the Chinese real estate sector. News that the company may miss loan repayments and have to restructure its debt has sent shockwaves through global financial markets, with the Hang Seng slumped to a level not seen since October last year.

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Research Briefing | Sep 21, 2021

China | Evergrande’s restructuring is key to containing damage

Evergrandes restructuring is key to containing damage_Page_1

The Evergrande saga has shone a spotlight on the Chinese real estate sector. News that the company may miss loan repayments and have to restructure its debt has sent shockwaves through global financial markets, with the Hang Seng slumped to a level not seen since October last year.

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Research Briefing | Sep 20, 2021

Canada | Leading parties open wallets in pandemic election bid

Leading parties open wallets in pandemic election bid - iPad

Canada will likely usher in another minority government when voters hit the polls on Sept 20, led by either the incumbent Liberals or the Conservatives, while the New Democrats (NDP) will likely hold the balance of power again.

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Research Briefing | Sep 20, 2021

Canada | Leading parties open wallets in pandemic election bid

Leading parties open wallets in pandemic election bid - iPad

Canada will likely usher in another minority government when voters hit the polls on Sept 20, led by either the incumbent Liberals or the Conservatives, while the New Democrats (NDP) will likely hold the balance of power again.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Denmark | Strong consumer spending should power the recovery

Ipad Frame-Denmark-Strong-consumer-spending-should-power-the-recovery

We’ve raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.4%, following the full release of the Q2 national accounts. While the consumer rebound fell short of expectations, strong wage growth and an unwinding of excess savings should power economic growth in H2.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Denmark | Strong consumer spending should power the recovery

Ipad Frame-Denmark-Strong-consumer-spending-should-power-the-recovery

We’ve raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.4%, following the full release of the Q2 national accounts. While the consumer rebound fell short of expectations, strong wage growth and an unwinding of excess savings should power economic growth in H2.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Sweden | The Swedish economy is undergoing a broad-based recovery

Ipad Frame-Sweden-The-Swedish-economy-is-undergoing-a-broad-based-recovery

Growth was confirmed at 0.9% in Q2, driven by domestic demand while net exports were a drag. The monthly GDP series points to positive momentum between May-July, which should translate into a strong performance in Q3.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Sweden | The Swedish economy is undergoing a broad-based recovery

Ipad Frame-Sweden-The-Swedish-economy-is-undergoing-a-broad-based-recovery

Growth was confirmed at 0.9% in Q2, driven by domestic demand while net exports were a drag. The monthly GDP series points to positive momentum between May-July, which should translate into a strong performance in Q3.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Eurozone | House price growth on track to reach a 30-year high

House-price-growth-on-track-to-reach-a-30-year-high

House price growth has gone from fast to faster across the eurozone, defying predictions of a pandemic-triggered downturn. This impressive momentum will continue through 2022.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Eurozone | House price growth on track to reach a 30-year high

House-price-growth-on-track-to-reach-a-30-year-high

House price growth has gone from fast to faster across the eurozone, defying predictions of a pandemic-triggered downturn. This impressive momentum will continue through 2022.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Germany | Lifting the fiscal handbrake is easier said than done

Ipad Frame-Germany-Lifting-the-fiscal-handbrake-is-easier-said-than-done

Recent political shifts have increased the odds of Germany loosening its tight national fiscal rules after the September elections, which could be good news given the drag from secular stagnation and the investment needed for the green and digital transitions. But we see significant obstacles that could delay or even weaken the economic impact, even if such a shift was agreed.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Germany | Lifting the fiscal handbrake is easier said than done

Ipad Frame-Germany-Lifting-the-fiscal-handbrake-is-easier-said-than-done

Recent political shifts have increased the odds of Germany loosening its tight national fiscal rules after the September elections, which could be good news given the drag from secular stagnation and the investment needed for the green and digital transitions. But we see significant obstacles that could delay or even weaken the economic impact, even if such a shift was agreed.

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