Five themes that will shape Latin America’s outlook in 2022
We expect Latin America to return to low trend growth in 2022, as policy support is withdrawn and the easy gains from the reopening fade. LatAm’s recovery will continue to lag the rest of the world and remain uneven across countries. A disorderly withdrawal of fiscal support, however, could tip economies back into recession or lead to social unrest. To ensure borrowing costs do not rise further and that fiscal credibility does not come under questioning, countries will need to start running primary budget surpluses.
What you will learn:
- LatAm will continue to underperform the rest of the world as we exit the Covid-19 pandemic
- By H1 2022, we expect the reopening of high-contact sectors to be completed while nearly every country in the region will be facing shrinking policy impulses
- Once the withdrawal in 2022 of policy support begins to hit
consumer spending, there will be a temptation to turn temporary pandemic relief measures like cash transfers into permanent ones
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Japan’s tariff turbulence to flatten near-term growth
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.2ppts to 0.8% in 2025 and by 0.4ppts to 0.2% in 2026, reflecting higher US tariffs and heightened global trade policy uncertainty. We now forecast that Japan's economy will barely grow over 2025-2026 on a sequential basis.
Find Out More
Post
Growth outlook cut further for the Eurozone amid tariff turmoil
Given the unique nature of the hike in US tariffs, the size of these supply and demand shocks and the speed at which they are arriving make the precise economic implications particularly hard to pin down. Overall, however, we expect GDP growth in the US and world economy to slow sharply, but we don't anticipate recessions in either.
Find Out More