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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Africa Country Insight: Ghana

Ghana managed to fight off the worst effects of the Covid-19 pandemic last year. While the country’s economic prospects remain largely positive, the slow Covid-19 vaccine rollout is expected to act as a drag on growth in the near term.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Africa Country Insight: Ghana

Ghana managed to fight off the worst effects of the Covid-19 pandemic last year. While the country’s economic prospects remain largely positive, the slow Covid-19 vaccine rollout is expected to act as a drag on growth in the near term.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Australia | Consumption set for a double-dip

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Household consumption reached its pre-pandemic level in Q2. Goods spending has been elevated throughout the recovery, while spending on essential services has broadly maintained its trend. But these components have been offset by discretionary services, where spending remains well below its pre-crisis level.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Australia | Consumption set for a double-dip

Copy of Ipad Frame (46)

Household consumption reached its pre-pandemic level in Q2. Goods spending has been elevated throughout the recovery, while spending on essential services has broadly maintained its trend. But these components have been offset by discretionary services, where spending remains well below its pre-crisis level.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

Australia | Road maintenance races ahead, construction in pit stop

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Governments around Australia pursued an ‘infrastructure-led recovery’ to kickstart the economy following the coronavirus induced 2020 recession. As part of this recovery the Federal Government announced the fast-tracking of  shovel-ready’ infrastructure projects and an acceleration of work on a number of major transportation projects that were already in the pipeline.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

Australia | Road maintenance races ahead, construction in pit stop

Copy of Ipad Frame (44)

Governments around Australia pursued an ‘infrastructure-led recovery’ to kickstart the economy following the coronavirus induced 2020 recession. As part of this recovery the Federal Government announced the fast-tracking of  shovel-ready’ infrastructure projects and an acceleration of work on a number of major transportation projects that were already in the pipeline.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker sees strong end to summer

US Recovery Tracker sees strong end to summer - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker exited the summer on a bright note. It rose 0.7ppts to 96.7 during the two weeks ended September 3 – the highest reading since late July. Despite downside risks from the Delta variant, the health situation is stabilizing, mobility is nearing its pre-pandemic level, and household spending is steady.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker sees strong end to summer

US Recovery Tracker sees strong end to summer - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker exited the summer on a bright note. It rose 0.7ppts to 96.7 during the two weeks ended September 3 – the highest reading since late July. Despite downside risks from the Delta variant, the health situation is stabilizing, mobility is nearing its pre-pandemic level, and household spending is steady.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

MENA | Lebanese government; Saudi GDP; UAE subsidies

Lebanese-government-Saudi-GDP-UAE-subsidies

After over a year of political impasse, Lebanon has finally formed a government, led by a twice-former prime minister Najib Mikati. The breakthrough gives a glimmer of hope that talks with the IMF can resume, paving the way for a financial rescue package needed to arrest further decline in the economy.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

MENA | Lebanese government; Saudi GDP; UAE subsidies

Lebanese-government-Saudi-GDP-UAE-subsidies

After over a year of political impasse, Lebanon has finally formed a government, led by a twice-former prime minister Najib Mikati. The breakthrough gives a glimmer of hope that talks with the IMF can resume, paving the way for a financial rescue package needed to arrest further decline in the economy.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

UK | Labour shortages are more a nibble than a bite

UK Labour shortages are more a nibble than a bite

Construction and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing and agriculture were the only UK sectors to suffer significant labour shortages in July, according to our new proprietary index of hiring mismatches. Labour shortages spiked in the early stages of the pandemic due to the lockdown, huge take up of the furlough scheme, and migrant workers leaving the UK. But since then, the dearth of workers has eased significantly.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

UK | Labour shortages are more a nibble than a bite

UK Labour shortages are more a nibble than a bite

Construction and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing and agriculture were the only UK sectors to suffer significant labour shortages in July, according to our new proprietary index of hiring mismatches. Labour shortages spiked in the early stages of the pandemic due to the lockdown, huge take up of the furlough scheme, and migrant workers leaving the UK. But since then, the dearth of workers has eased significantly.

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The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production (GVA) in 2019, associated with 710,000 jobs. Productivity and wage levels, both on the railways and in the rail supply sector, were above-average in every region.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

Finland | Growth driven by domestic demand

Finland | Growth driven by domestic demand

Finland’s Q2 GDP has been revised up slightly, which mechanically has lifted our forecast for 2021 growth. Most leading indicators remain buoyant but show slowing momentum as the initial post-reopening boom fades. Virus transmission remains contained, while industry has so far proved resilient to the global headwinds.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

Finland | Growth driven by domestic demand

Finland | Growth driven by domestic demand

Finland’s Q2 GDP has been revised up slightly, which mechanically has lifted our forecast for 2021 growth. Most leading indicators remain buoyant but show slowing momentum as the initial post-reopening boom fades. Virus transmission remains contained, while industry has so far proved resilient to the global headwinds.

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Shinjuku Tokyo
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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

Why Abenomics failed to reflate household wealth

Japan | Why Abenomics failed to reflate household wealth

The latest survey of Japan’s households shows the stark failure of Abenomics to boost household wealth through asset price growth. As the ruling Liberal Democrats choose a new leader, the party will need to consider why monetary easing has failed to reflate wealth and, alongside stagnant wages, consumption.

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Research Briefing | Sep 16, 2021

Why Abenomics failed to reflate household wealth

Japan | Why Abenomics failed to reflate household wealth

The latest survey of Japan’s households shows the stark failure of Abenomics to boost household wealth through asset price growth. As the ruling Liberal Democrats choose a new leader, the party will need to consider why monetary easing has failed to reflate wealth and, alongside stagnant wages, consumption.

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Research Briefing | Sep 15, 2021

Canadian economy stumbles, but is still poised for robust recovery

Economy stumbles, but is still poised for robust recovery - iPad

We remain bullish on the outlook for the Canadian economy over the next two years despite a surprising contraction in Q2. However, increased Delta caution and supply chain disruptions will temper growth for the remainder of 2021 and likely well into 2022. Canada’s high vaccination rates should prevent the reimposition of severe restrictions and allow the economy to grow 5.7% in 2021 and 4.5% next year.

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Research Briefing | Sep 15, 2021

Canadian economy stumbles, but is still poised for robust recovery

Economy stumbles, but is still poised for robust recovery - iPad

We remain bullish on the outlook for the Canadian economy over the next two years despite a surprising contraction in Q2. However, increased Delta caution and supply chain disruptions will temper growth for the remainder of 2021 and likely well into 2022. Canada’s high vaccination rates should prevent the reimposition of severe restrictions and allow the economy to grow 5.7% in 2021 and 4.5% next year.

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The Africa Risk-Reward Index offers a snapshot of a continent that remains one of the world’s most exciting investment destinations. This report highlights key trends that investors should be thinking about, it challenges preconceptions and helps set priorities for further research. We hope it will serve as a starting point for the important discussions investors should be having.

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Research Briefing | Sep 13, 2021

US | Past peak growth, but still robust heading into 2022

Past peak growth, but still robust heading into 2022 - iPad

The US economy is past its peak, but that doesn’t mean the recovery is headed into reverse. While a deteriorated health situation and lingering supply-chain issues weighed on economic momentum at summer’s end, the 2022 outlook for final demand remains robust. We foresee the economy growing 5.5% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022 – double the 2010-2019 pace of growth.

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Research Briefing | Sep 13, 2021

US | Past peak growth, but still robust heading into 2022

Past peak growth, but still robust heading into 2022 - iPad

The US economy is past its peak, but that doesn’t mean the recovery is headed into reverse. While a deteriorated health situation and lingering supply-chain issues weighed on economic momentum at summer’s end, the 2022 outlook for final demand remains robust. We foresee the economy growing 5.5% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022 – double the 2010-2019 pace of growth.

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Illicit cigarettes Mexico

This research seeks to quantify the size and scale of the illicit consumption of cigarettes in Mexico, as well as the impact on government revenues, and how this has changed in recent years.

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Research Briefing | Sep 13, 2021

Eurozone | Europe’s consumer boom faces several challenges

Ipad Frame-Europes-consumer-boom-faces-several-challenges

We expect above-average growth in the eurozone over the coming quarters given the ample pent-up demand in the aftermath of the crisis. In the short term, economies will still benefit from reopening tailwinds but will be facing several challenges. We see euro area GDP returning to pre-pandemic levels in Q4 2021.

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Research Briefing | Sep 13, 2021

Eurozone | Europe’s consumer boom faces several challenges

Ipad Frame-Europes-consumer-boom-faces-several-challenges

We expect above-average growth in the eurozone over the coming quarters given the ample pent-up demand in the aftermath of the crisis. In the short term, economies will still benefit from reopening tailwinds but will be facing several challenges. We see euro area GDP returning to pre-pandemic levels in Q4 2021.

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Motorcycle-related activity supports €21.4 billion of output (GDP) across Europe a year, sustains 389,000 jobs, and generates €16.6 billion of tax revenues, according to research by Oxford Economics. This means that in 2019 economic activities associated with motorcycling generated more GDP, and employed more people, than the metropolitan area economies centred on Venice, Malaga, and Palma de Mallorca. The total tax impact would have been sufficient to cover the pay of 380,000 teachers, or some 6.5% of all European teachers.

Blog|10 September 2021

Why the era of low-cost travel is not necessarily over

Simon Kyte
Senior Economist, Tourism Economics
Why the era of low-cost travel is not necessarily over

The cost of travel has fallen over the past two decades, with global average spending per international trip across all destinations down 17% in 2019 from its 2000 level in real prices. This has been enabled in part by cheaper air fares that have resulted in an increase in not only the volume of trips but also the proportion of shorter trips and weekend city breaks. But in the midst of a pandemic, with fewer travelers and rising costs, could the era of low-cost travel be over?

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Research Briefing | Sep 9, 2021

US | Travel and Tourism Employment Report

US Travel and Tourism Employment Report

Nearly half of the 16.9 million jobs in the leisure & hospitality (L&H) industry, as defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), were lost in March and April 2020. While 4.9 million jobs had been created or restored between April and November 2020, another 500,000 L&H jobs were lost in December 2020 and January 2021.

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Research Briefing | Sep 9, 2021

US | Travel and Tourism Employment Report

US Travel and Tourism Employment Report

Nearly half of the 16.9 million jobs in the leisure & hospitality (L&H) industry, as defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), were lost in March and April 2020. While 4.9 million jobs had been created or restored between April and November 2020, another 500,000 L&H jobs were lost in December 2020 and January 2021.

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Research Briefing | Sep 9, 2021

MENA | UAE’s 50 initiatives; Abu Dhabi fees; solid regional PMIs

UAEs-50-initiatives-Abu-Dhabi-fees-solid-regional-PMIs

New rules on residency visas are just part of the 50 economic initiatives
announced by the UAE to celebrate its golden jubilee. The measures include
new visa categories to attract and retain skilled workers in the country’s latest bid to diversify its economy away from dependence on oil.

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Research Briefing | Sep 9, 2021

MENA | UAE’s 50 initiatives; Abu Dhabi fees; solid regional PMIs

UAEs-50-initiatives-Abu-Dhabi-fees-solid-regional-PMIs

New rules on residency visas are just part of the 50 economic initiatives
announced by the UAE to celebrate its golden jubilee. The measures include
new visa categories to attract and retain skilled workers in the country’s latest bid to diversify its economy away from dependence on oil.

Read more

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Research Briefing | Sep 9, 2021

Consumers hold the key to global fortunes in 2022

Consumers-hold-the-key-to-global-fortunes-in-2022

In 2022, we expect the strength of global economic growth to be driven by demand-side developments, in stark contrast to the past two years when shifts in activity restrictions have been the dominant force. While we expect healthy growth, it is conditional on a reasonably orderly removal of the emergency fiscal support measures, which may prove easier said than done.

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Research Briefing | Sep 9, 2021

Consumers hold the key to global fortunes in 2022

Consumers-hold-the-key-to-global-fortunes-in-2022

In 2022, we expect the strength of global economic growth to be driven by demand-side developments, in stark contrast to the past two years when shifts in activity restrictions have been the dominant force. While we expect healthy growth, it is conditional on a reasonably orderly removal of the emergency fiscal support measures, which may prove easier said than done.

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Research Briefing | Sep 7, 2021

Another CBR hike may be in the cards for Russia in September

Ipad Frame-Russia-Another-CBR-hike-may-be-in-the-cards-for-September

At the September policy meeting, the CBR is likely to consider staying on hold or hiking its policy rate 25bp or 50bp. However, we think a 25bp hike is marginally more likely than the two other outcomes.

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Research Briefing | Sep 7, 2021

Another CBR hike may be in the cards for Russia in September

Ipad Frame-Russia-Another-CBR-hike-may-be-in-the-cards-for-September

At the September policy meeting, the CBR is likely to consider staying on hold or hiking its policy rate 25bp or 50bp. However, we think a 25bp hike is marginally more likely than the two other outcomes.

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