US | Past peak growth, but still robust heading into 2022
The US economy is past its peak, but that doesn’t mean the recovery is headed into reverse. While a deteriorated health situation and lingering supply-chain issues weighed on economic momentum at summer’s end, the 2022 outlook for final demand remains robust. We foresee the economy growing 5.5% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022 – double the 2010-2019 pace of growth.
What you will learn:
- On the consumer front, a gradual employment recovery, with labor supply issues gradually easing and wage growth remaining solid, should support income growth as fiscal transfers fade.
- After staging its strongest post-recession recovery, business investment growth will moderate through 2022, in line with cooler demand. Still, the need to expand productive capacity and replenish inventories will buoy robust activity.
- We believe inflation has peaked. With demand cooling and supply gradually rebounding, we expect inflation to cool in the coming quarters. Fears of runaway inflation or stagflation are misguided.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Big shifts are underway in Russia-China trade
Data for Q3 on the volume of China's imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China's demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.
Find Out More
Post
Indonesia likely to miss fiscal target in 2023
We expect Indonesia's budget balance to show a large deficit in H2 of this year as the cost of fuel subsidies is finally reflected in the fiscal accounts.
Find Out More