Research Briefing | Sep 13, 2021

US | Past peak growth, but still robust heading into 2022

Past peak growth, but still robust heading into 2022 - iPad

The US economy is past its peak, but that doesn’t mean the recovery is headed into reverse. While a deteriorated health situation and lingering supply-chain issues weighed on economic momentum at summer’s end, the 2022 outlook for final demand remains robust. We foresee the economy growing 5.5% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022 – double the 2010-2019 pace of growth.

What you will learn:

  • On the consumer front, a gradual employment recovery, with labor supply issues gradually easing and wage growth remaining solid, should support income growth as fiscal transfers fade. 
  • After staging its strongest post-recession recovery, business investment growth will moderate through 2022, in line with cooler demand. Still, the need to expand productive capacity and replenish inventories will buoy robust activity.
  • We believe inflation has peaked. With demand cooling and supply gradually rebounding, we expect inflation to cool in the coming quarters. Fears of runaway inflation or stagflation are misguided.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Riksbank first does not mean Riksbank alone

We think the Riksbank will cut rates in May, before the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank do so. The Riksbank's monetary policy tightening has had a large impact on the interest rate sensitive Swedish economy, while recent inflation outcomes have undershot Riksbank's forecasts and converged to the target. The effect of an earlier rate cut on the krona is a key risk.

Find Out More
A hat from Trump's US presidential elections campaign

Post

Trumponomics: The economics of a second Trump presidency

We modeled two scenarios in which former President Donald Trump returns to the White House and Republicans gain full control of Congress after the 2024 election.

Find Out More