Consumers hold the key to global fortunes in 2022
In 2022, we expect the strength of global economic growth to be driven by demand-side developments, in stark contrast to the past two years when shifts in activity restrictions have been the dominant force. While we expect healthy growth, it is conditional on a reasonably orderly removal of the emergency fiscal support measures, which may prove easier said than done.
What you will learn from this report:
- As we enter 2022, we expect the economic importance of Delta to wane and most of the easy growth wins from reopening to have been exhausted.
- While global GDP growth will lag behind the exceptional rates of 2021, we see a well-above-trend expansion of 4.7%.
- The consumer boom is driven primarily by the advanced economies.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Bank of Japan resumes rate normalisation, cautiously
The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate by 0.25ppts to 0.5% at Friday's meeting, as we expected. We maintain our call that the central bank will hike the rate again to 0.75%, most likely in July after the outcome of the Spring Wage Negotiation is confirmed, especially for small firms.
Find Out MorePost
Tariffs won’t cause a burst in producer prices in the Eurozone
Potential US tariffs would be disruptive for the eurozone economy as a whole, but we think their inflationary impact is likely to be contained. As US imports account for around 10% of total extra-EU imports, we estimate a 10% across-the-board tariff would only increase the producers prices index by 0.5%.
Find Out More