Research Briefing | Sep 7, 2021

Another CBR hike may be in the cards for Russia in September

Ipad Frame-Russia-Another-CBR-hike-may-be-in-the-cards-for-September

At the September policy meeting, the CBR is likely to consider staying on hold or hiking its policy rate 25bp or 50bp. However, we think a 25bp hike is marginally more likely than the two other outcomes.What you will learn:

  • Inflationary pressures may remain elevated in the coming weeks, if not months. Covid-related disruption to global supply chains is likely to push up input costs even further.
  • Household demand continues to expand, supported by rising real wages, booming consumer lending, and pre-election handouts.
  • Inflation expectations fell in August vs. the July peak, but still are in the double digits (12.5%).
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