Another CBR hike may be in the cards for Russia in September
At the September policy meeting, the CBR is likely to consider staying on hold or hiking its policy rate 25bp or 50bp. However, we think a 25bp hike is marginally more likely than the two other outcomes.What you will learn:
- Inflationary pressures may remain elevated in the coming weeks, if not months. Covid-related disruption to global supply chains is likely to push up input costs even further.
- Household demand continues to expand, supported by rising real wages, booming consumer lending, and pre-election handouts.
- Inflation expectations fell in August vs. the July peak, but still are in the double digits (12.5%).
Local rates and FX: Asian local currency sovereigns – not long now
The pieces are almost in place for a high conviction OW on Asian local currency debt, but not quite. Indeed, we maintain a cautious view on all EM local currency sovereign bonds, including Asia, given the relentless concern over the dollar and domestic inflationary pressures.Find Out More
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for Africa?
The question of debt restructuring is becoming a more pressing one: in recent weeks, a number of African sovereigns have openly or discreetly mulled public debt reorganisation, called for debt relief, or suffered credit rating downgrades owing to rising default odds.Find Out More