Research Briefing | Sep 7, 2021

Another CBR hike may be in the cards for Russia in September

Ipad Frame-Russia-Another-CBR-hike-may-be-in-the-cards-for-September

At the September policy meeting, the CBR is likely to consider staying on hold or hiking its policy rate 25bp or 50bp. However, we think a 25bp hike is marginally more likely than the two other outcomes.What you will learn:

  • Inflationary pressures may remain elevated in the coming weeks, if not months. Covid-related disruption to global supply chains is likely to push up input costs even further.
  • Household demand continues to expand, supported by rising real wages, booming consumer lending, and pre-election handouts.
  • Inflation expectations fell in August vs. the July peak, but still are in the double digits (12.5%).
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Local rates and FX: Asian local currency sovereigns – not long now

The pieces are almost in place for a high conviction OW on Asian local currency debt, but not quite. Indeed, we maintain a cautious view on all EM local currency sovereign bonds, including Asia, given the relentless concern over the dollar and domestic inflationary pressures.

Find Out More

Post

Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for Africa?

The question of debt restructuring is becoming a more pressing one: in recent weeks, a number of African sovereigns have openly or discreetly mulled public debt reorganisation, called for debt relief, or suffered credit rating downgrades owing to rising default odds.

Find Out More