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Research Briefing | Sep 7, 2021

Global Coronavirus Watch: Stresses in supply chains build

Delta remains the primary threat to the recovery, but we also think that the drag from continuing, supply-chain disruption will be critical in the near term. Consequently, we’ve pushed back our expected timing of the revival in the industrial sector to mid-2022 and, due to this shift, will lower our global GDP forecasts.

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Research Briefing | Sep 7, 2021

Global Coronavirus Watch: Stresses in supply chains build

Delta remains the primary threat to the recovery, but we also think that the drag from continuing, supply-chain disruption will be critical in the near term. Consequently, we’ve pushed back our expected timing of the revival in the industrial sector to mid-2022 and, due to this shift, will lower our global GDP forecasts.

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Research Briefing | Sep 7, 2021

Global Travel Highlights – August 2021

Ipad Frame - Global travel highlights - Aug 2021

Recovery in both domestic and international travel is underway in the second half of 2021, despite some larger adverse impacts for the year to date than previously expected.

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Research Briefing | Sep 7, 2021

Global Travel Highlights – August 2021

Ipad Frame - Global travel highlights - Aug 2021

Recovery in both domestic and international travel is underway in the second half of 2021, despite some larger adverse impacts for the year to date than previously expected.

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Research Briefing | Sep 6, 2021

London Monitor | The July ‘ pingdemic ’ did not derail London economic expansion

The outlook for the world’s leading urban economies amid the global slowdown (5)-2

Although the ‘ pingdemic ’ in July raised concerns about the UK economic recovery, the evidence is that activity has continued to expand, even if the biggest post lockdown gains are now behind us. Survey evidence suggests that business activity was robust in London during July. Although the pace of expansion slowed from June, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index , London output growth remained strong by historical standards.

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Research Briefing | Sep 6, 2021

London Monitor | The July ‘ pingdemic ’ did not derail London economic expansion

The outlook for the world’s leading urban economies amid the global slowdown (5)-2

Although the ‘ pingdemic ’ in July raised concerns about the UK economic recovery, the evidence is that activity has continued to expand, even if the biggest post lockdown gains are now behind us. Survey evidence suggests that business activity was robust in London during July. Although the pace of expansion slowed from June, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index , London output growth remained strong by historical standards.

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Research Briefing | Sep 6, 2021

APAC | ASEAN growth tracker indicates weak start to Q3

image rb asean q3

Our ASEAN-6 growth tracker, which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam, points to a weak start to Q3. Following a gradual pick-up in Q1 and a substantial rebound in Q2 due to favourable base effects, growth slowed to 6.4% y/y in July from 8% y/y in June.

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Research Briefing | Sep 6, 2021

APAC | ASEAN growth tracker indicates weak start to Q3

image rb asean q3

Our ASEAN-6 growth tracker, which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam, points to a weak start to Q3. Following a gradual pick-up in Q1 and a substantial rebound in Q2 due to favourable base effects, growth slowed to 6.4% y/y in July from 8% y/y in June.

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Research Briefing | Sep 3, 2021

Eurozone | Firms’ margins won’t furnish long-lasting lift to inflation

Ipad Frame-Eurozone-Firms-margins-wont-furnish-long-lasting-lift-to-inflation

Profitability has staged an impressive recovery, but the rise in Q1 operating margins to a 12-year high materially overstates corporate health. Excluding direct transfers to firms, operating margins remain below their weak 2019 average.

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Research Briefing | Sep 3, 2021

Eurozone | Firms’ margins won’t furnish long-lasting lift to inflation

Ipad Frame-Eurozone-Firms-margins-wont-furnish-long-lasting-lift-to-inflation

Profitability has staged an impressive recovery, but the rise in Q1 operating margins to a 12-year high materially overstates corporate health. Excluding direct transfers to firms, operating margins remain below their weak 2019 average.

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Research Briefing | Sep 3, 2021

UK | Consumer caution hasn’t gone away

Consumer-caution-hasnt-gone-away

The latest money and credit data suggested caution on the part of consumers. Unsecured lending flatlined in July and households’ savings continuing to grow by more than pre-Covid norms.

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Research Briefing | Sep 3, 2021

UK | Consumer caution hasn’t gone away

Consumer-caution-hasnt-gone-away

The latest money and credit data suggested caution on the part of consumers. Unsecured lending flatlined in July and households’ savings continuing to grow by more than pre-Covid norms.

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Research Briefing

US | Jackson Hole memo: Don’t fear the taper

Copy of Ipad Frame (43)

Powell’s speech did not materially alter the outlook for Fed policy, but it did clarify the distinction between the timing of tapering and rates lift-off. The bar required for raising the Fed funds rate was increased a notch, allaying market fears of a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum” episode.

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Research Briefing

US | Jackson Hole memo: Don’t fear the taper

Copy of Ipad Frame (43)

Powell’s speech did not materially alter the outlook for Fed policy, but it did clarify the distinction between the timing of tapering and rates lift-off. The bar required for raising the Fed funds rate was increased a notch, allaying market fears of a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum” episode.

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Research Briefing | Sep 2, 2021

MENA | Turkey GDP; Saudi FDI; OPEC+ meeting

Turkey-GDP-Saudi-FDI-OPEC-meeting

Turkey’s economy posted growth of 0.9% q/q in Q2. The better result than our forecast of a 0.6% q/q decline was fuelled by a strong post-lockdown rebound in June. And latest indicators show activity surged to new highs in Q3, presenting upside risks to our forecast, notwithstanding concerns surrounding the spread of the Delta variant. We will be raising our 2021 GDP growth forecast above 8%

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Research Briefing | Sep 2, 2021

MENA | Turkey GDP; Saudi FDI; OPEC+ meeting

Turkey-GDP-Saudi-FDI-OPEC-meeting

Turkey’s economy posted growth of 0.9% q/q in Q2. The better result than our forecast of a 0.6% q/q decline was fuelled by a strong post-lockdown rebound in June. And latest indicators show activity surged to new highs in Q3, presenting upside risks to our forecast, notwithstanding concerns surrounding the spread of the Delta variant. We will be raising our 2021 GDP growth forecast above 8%

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Research Briefing | Sep 2, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker cools in late-August hiatus

Recovery Tracker cools in late-August hiatus - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker slid to its lowest level in nearly three months during the week ended August 20, declining 0.2ppts to 95.7. Still, while the Delta variant is driving renewed virus fear and exacerbated virus fatigue, households are still spending at a healthy, albeit cooler pace, and the labor market recovery appears generally resilient.

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Research Briefing | Sep 2, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker cools in late-August hiatus

Recovery Tracker cools in late-August hiatus - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker slid to its lowest level in nearly three months during the week ended August 20, declining 0.2ppts to 95.7. Still, while the Delta variant is driving renewed virus fear and exacerbated virus fatigue, households are still spending at a healthy, albeit cooler pace, and the labor market recovery appears generally resilient.

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Research Briefing | Sep 2, 2021

Foreign military involvement in Africa

Foreign militaries, especially those from the US and France, have invested enormous resources in battling Islamist militancy in Africa, but also to entrench and expand their influence. But even though insecurity and lack of development have given militants a foothold in many parts of Africa, it is the corruption and indifference of local elites that have allowed militant groups to thrive.

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Research Briefing | Sep 2, 2021

Foreign military involvement in Africa

Foreign militaries, especially those from the US and France, have invested enormous resources in battling Islamist militancy in Africa, but also to entrench and expand their influence. But even though insecurity and lack of development have given militants a foothold in many parts of Africa, it is the corruption and indifference of local elites that have allowed militant groups to thrive.

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Challenges and opportunities from the net zero transition across the nations and regions of the UK.

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Research Briefing | Sep 1, 2021

Global | Rising wealth dampens UK and EZ interest rates

Rising-wealth-dampens-UK-and-EZ-interest-rates

Bank of England MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe recently highlighted how the UK’s growing wealth will continue to put a damper on gilt interest rates. Our analysis shows that the private net wealth-to-GDP ratio in the eurozone, while lower, will follow a similar trajectory until 2050. Thus, the downward pressure on interest rates will be similar in the UK and the eurozone.

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Research Briefing | Sep 1, 2021

Global | Rising wealth dampens UK and EZ interest rates

Rising-wealth-dampens-UK-and-EZ-interest-rates

Bank of England MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe recently highlighted how the UK’s growing wealth will continue to put a damper on gilt interest rates. Our analysis shows that the private net wealth-to-GDP ratio in the eurozone, while lower, will follow a similar trajectory until 2050. Thus, the downward pressure on interest rates will be similar in the UK and the eurozone.

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Research Briefing | Sep 1, 2021

China | The motivations and implications of ‘common prosperity’

China_the_motivations_and_implications_of_common_prosperity first page

The sudden recent wave of regulatory tightening hitting China’s internet companies has shaken investor confidence. Markets were badly prepared; they had priced in largely unrestrained growth of big tech amid continued easy regulation. Many business models will need to be adjusted, which will weigh on future profit growth.

While these individual regulatory actions were guided by specific motivations, the actions are consistent with China’s goal of ‘common prosperity’ that has recently risen in prominence.

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Research Briefing | Sep 1, 2021

China | The motivations and implications of ‘common prosperity’

China_the_motivations_and_implications_of_common_prosperity first page

The sudden recent wave of regulatory tightening hitting China’s internet companies has shaken investor confidence. Markets were badly prepared; they had priced in largely unrestrained growth of big tech amid continued easy regulation. Many business models will need to be adjusted, which will weigh on future profit growth.

While these individual regulatory actions were guided by specific motivations, the actions are consistent with China’s goal of ‘common prosperity’ that has recently risen in prominence.

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Oxford Economics recently worked with the IBM Institute for Business Value to survey nearly 7,000 US-based professionals as part of a program on diversity and inclusion.

Blog|31 August 2021

New business creation is a booster shot for the US job market

New business creation is a booster shot for the US job market

An unexpected bright spot of the pandemic has been a surge in risk-taking by entrepreneurs, igniting a record stretch of business creation over the past 18 months. With the economy still about six million jobs short of its pre-pandemic level, business formation may be one channel through which the labor market gets an added lift as it continues to recover over the coming months.

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Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

US | Pandemic unemployment benefits ending for millions

More than 11 million individuals will lose access to emergency unemployment benefits at the end of next week creating a headwind for personal income and consumer spending.

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Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

US | Pandemic unemployment benefits ending for millions

More than 11 million individuals will lose access to emergency unemployment benefits at the end of next week creating a headwind for personal income and consumer spending.

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Research Briefing

Global | Financial market risks – real, but maybe overstated

Financial market risks – real, but maybe overstated

Concerns have risen about financial market risks, centring around elevated asset valuations and high corporate debt. A lack of corporate distress and low interest rates suggest no cause for panic. But a growth scare or a rise in bond yields – perhaps due to higher inflation – could change the picture.

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Research Briefing

Global | Financial market risks – real, but maybe overstated

Financial market risks – real, but maybe overstated

Concerns have risen about financial market risks, centring around elevated asset valuations and high corporate debt. A lack of corporate distress and low interest rates suggest no cause for panic. But a growth scare or a rise in bond yields – perhaps due to higher inflation – could change the picture.

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Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

UK | Input shortages continue to escalate

UK | Input shortages continue to escalate

Input shortages were the key theme of this week’s business surveys. Manufacturers continue to struggle with global component shortages, while producers and firms in the services sector reported problems finding labour. While activity growth remains strong, stock levels have fallen to record lows.

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Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

UK | Input shortages continue to escalate

UK | Input shortages continue to escalate

Input shortages were the key theme of this week’s business surveys. Manufacturers continue to struggle with global component shortages, while producers and firms in the services sector reported problems finding labour. While activity growth remains strong, stock levels have fallen to record lows.

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Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

Country Insight: Egypt – August 2021

Ipad Frame-Africa-Country-Insight-Egypt-Aug-2021

The Egyptian economy has proven resilient in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, but more recent PMI figures suggest that the recovery has since stagnated. The Delta variant has only recently been detected within Egypt’s borders, but the threat of a fourth wave of infections is real.

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Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

Country Insight: Egypt – August 2021

Ipad Frame-Africa-Country-Insight-Egypt-Aug-2021

The Egyptian economy has proven resilient in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, but more recent PMI figures suggest that the recovery has since stagnated. The Delta variant has only recently been detected within Egypt’s borders, but the threat of a fourth wave of infections is real.

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Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

Australia | The pandemic shake up of Australia’s population

Copy of Ipad Frame (42)

The closure of the international border has caused net overseas migration (NOM) to crash during the pandemic, significantly slowing population growth for all states. With the greatest exposure to NOM pre-pandemic, Sydney and Melbourne continue to incur the brunt of this shock. The recent Delta variant outbreak and the subsequent halving of Australia’s arrival cap in July 2021 will act as a further drag on NOM over Q3 and Q4 2021. Beyond this point the outlook remains mostly unchanged, with the border gradually reopening from mid-2022.

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Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

Australia | The pandemic shake up of Australia’s population

Copy of Ipad Frame (42)

The closure of the international border has caused net overseas migration (NOM) to crash during the pandemic, significantly slowing population growth for all states. With the greatest exposure to NOM pre-pandemic, Sydney and Melbourne continue to incur the brunt of this shock. The recent Delta variant outbreak and the subsequent halving of Australia’s arrival cap in July 2021 will act as a further drag on NOM over Q3 and Q4 2021. Beyond this point the outlook remains mostly unchanged, with the border gradually reopening from mid-2022.

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