US | Jackson Hole memo: Don’t fear the taper
Powell’s speech did not materially alter the outlook for Fed policy, but it did clarify the distinction between the timing of tapering and rates lift-off. The bar required for raising the Fed funds rate was increased a notch, allaying market fears of a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum” episode.
What you will learn:
- Foreigners turned to net buyers of US Treasuries with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
- We expect the immediate post-Jackson Hole environment to be positive for risk sentiment and, with above trend growth expected to last well into 2022, we still expect yields to grind higher from here, albeit slowly.
- The mention of inflation suggests a level of concern that goes beyond an acknowledgment of its elevated rate, but we do not believe it will affect the decision making of key FOMC members
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Most US metros to see slower growth in 2024
Most metros have had steady GDP and job growth in 2023 but will start to see quarterly declines in Q4 or Q1 2024. All of the top 50 metros are forecast to see a slowdown in GDP growth in 2024, driven by lower finance and real estate GDP more than by other sectors.
Find Out More
Post
Why the real yield on private wealth will keep falling globally
Despite the importance of returns on private wealth for long-term investors – be they households, asset managers, or pension funds – the fact that real yields have been on a downward trend across the world for decades seems to have escaped attention.
Find Out More