US | Pandemic unemployment benefits ending for millions
More than 11 million individuals will lose access to emergency unemployment benefits at the end of next week creating a headwind for personal income and consumer spending.
This comes as 25 states had already terminated benefits for roughly 3.5 million individuals ahead of the original American Rescue Plan deadline of Sep 6.
While states implementing an early termination argued that benefits were impeding labor supply, we only find a marginal effect. Other research confirms the limited impact of benefits on employment, but with wide uncertainty bands.
As such, it appears the expiry of benefits will weigh more on the personal income ledger of the economy than it does to support employment growth.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Food prices to bottom out in 2024, risks skewed to upside
Our baseline forecast is for world food commodity prices to register an annual decline this year, in aggregate, reducing pressure on food retail prices further downstream. However, we believe the risks to this forecast are overwhelmingly skewed to the upside.
Find Out More
Post
Battery raw material prices to recover
Battery raw materials prices bottomed out last quarter and we think a sustained recovery is looming. Midstream EV battery manufacturing activity has picked up again and inventories have returned to historical levels, suggesting upstream demand for raw materials will also bounce back.
Find Out More