US | Pandemic unemployment benefits ending for millions
More than 11 million individuals will lose access to emergency unemployment benefits at the end of next week creating a headwind for personal income and consumer spending.
This comes as 25 states had already terminated benefits for roughly 3.5 million individuals ahead of the original American Rescue Plan deadline of Sep 6.
While states implementing an early termination argued that benefits were impeding labor supply, we only find a marginal effect. Other research confirms the limited impact of benefits on employment, but with wide uncertainty bands.
As such, it appears the expiry of benefits will weigh more on the personal income ledger of the economy than it does to support employment growth.
BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.Find Out More
China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods
We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).Find Out More