UK | Consumer caution hasn’t gone away
The latest money and credit data suggested caution on the part of consumers. Unsecured lending flatlined in July and households’ savings continuing to grow by more than pre-Covid norms.
What you will learn from this report:
- Meanwhile, less momentum was evident in falls in August’s PMIs.
- But the indices remained firmly in growth territory, while lower infection numbers and less stringent self-isolation rules should see the recovery pick up steam.
- How much the economic recovery was held back by the resurgence of Covid infections in July and a rise in people instructed to self-isolate after being “pinged” by the NHS Covid app is difficult to gauge with certainty. But
Why an ageing population doesn’t mean soaring inflation
What’s the future for inflation? Joachim Nagel, the new president of Germany's central bank, believes the rapidly ageing global population will play a key role – ramping up pressure on prices in the medium term. While we agree slowing labour supply will stifle output growth, in his recent discussion Nagel failed to fully consider the demand side of the argument.Find Out More
Surging global food prices could drive eurozone core inflation higher
Along with energy prices, global food prices have emerged as a key driver of the eurozone's current inflationary surge. Like other advanced economies, eurozone countries tend to be less exposed to global food price fluctuations. But if persistent and combined with strong demand, high food prices could result in a higher pass-through to core inflation.Find Out More