Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

Australia | The pandemic shake up of Australia’s population

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The closure of the international border has caused net overseas migration (NOM) to crash during the pandemic, significantly slowing population growth for all states. With the greatest exposure to NOM pre-pandemic, Sydney and Melbourne continue to incur the brunt of this shock. The recent Delta variant outbreak and the subsequent halving of Australia’s arrival cap in July 2021 will act as a further drag on NOM over Q3 and Q4 2021. Beyond this point the outlook remains mostly unchanged, with the border gradually reopening from mid-2022.
What you will learn:

  • The pandemic has resulted in a rapid slowing of population growth across Australia due to the collapse of overseas migration. Domestic migration flows are undergoing a period of change, favouring regional locations.
  • We expect this internal population shift to continue, holding up regional population growth. Recurring outbreaks in Sydney and Melbourne are likely to solidify this trend near term.
  • Further analysis on Australia’s population growth rate by state. 
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