APAC | ASEAN growth tracker indicates weak start to Q3
Our ASEAN-6 growth tracker, which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam, points to a weak start to Q3. Following a gradual pick-up in Q1 and a substantial rebound in Q2 due to favourable base effects, growth slowed to 6.4% y/y in July from 8% y/y in June.
What you will learn from this report:
- Our growth tracker confirms that economic momentum slowed for ASEAN-6 economies in July. We expect growth to deteriorate further in the near term as tight restrictions in several ASEAN economies will weigh on activity.
- Exports and industrial production continued to contribute positively to our tracker, but to a lesser extent than earlier this year. Retail sales dragged on growth across the region in July after a brief rebound.
- We are comfortable with our Q3 growth forecast, which currently lies below our growth tracker’s July outcome. We expect the tracker to weaken further in August, bringing it closer to our Q3 forecast. We think risks are still tilted to the downside given the ongoing pandemic and low vaccination coverage across most of the region.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Big shifts are underway in Russia-China trade
Data for Q3 on the volume of China's imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China's demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.
Find Out More
Post
Levelling up is unlikely under the Liz Truss government
The government's levelling up ambition has probably been made more, not less, difficult by the new "Plan for Growth". Policies of lower taxes, less regulation, and a smaller state are unlikely to have much beneficial impact on long-term growth at the national level, let alone in those regions with long track records of underperformance.
Find Out More