Research Briefing | Sep 2, 2021

MENA | Turkey GDP; Saudi FDI; OPEC+ meeting

Turkey-GDP-Saudi-FDI-OPEC-meeting

Turkey’s economy posted growth of 0.9% q/q in Q2. The better result than our forecast of a 0.6% q/q decline was fuelled by a strong post-lockdown rebound in June. And latest indicators show activity surged to new highs in Q3, presenting upside risks to our forecast, notwithstanding concerns surrounding the spread of the Delta variant. We will be raising our 2021 GDP growth forecast above 8%

What you will learn:

  • Following reform that allows 100% foreign ownership in the private sector as well as a large-scale investment programme announced by the government, Saudi Arabia’s foreign direct investment rose by 13% year-on-year in Q1 2021, with the number of business licenses increasing by 36% in the same period.
  • OPEC+ agreed to stick with the previously agreed gradual output hikes, boosting production by 400,000 bpd each month between now and late 2022.
  • Despite speculation that production could be increased more rapidly, OPEC has urged caution against a backdrop of the spread of the more contagious Delta variant.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Finland’s growth forecast cut amid weak confidence and soaring inflation

We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe.

Find Out More

Post

Why we see eurozone inflation slowing sharply next year

We have revised our 2022 eurozone inflation forecasts sharply higher, to 6.0%, since the start of the Ukraine war, as energy and food prices began to soar and new supply bottlenecks emerged. That said, we still see inflation decelerating sharply to 1.3% in 2023, putting us below consensus. While we recognise significant risks to our views, inflation should slow to below 2% in H2 2023.

Find Out More