UK | MPC continues to shift in a hawkish direction
The minutes of September’s MPC meeting were more hawkish, leading markets to price in a rate hike early next year. But we think markets are getting ahead of themselves. Most MPC members still believe high inflation will prove transitory, while growth in demand is clearly continuing to soften.
What you will learn from this report:
- The decline in the number of furloughed workers through the summer has been unexpectedly slow
- Consumer confidence fell sharply in September
- High frequency indicators
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Finland’s growth forecast cut amid weak confidence and soaring inflation
We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe.
Find Out More
Post
Why we see eurozone inflation slowing sharply next year
We have revised our 2022 eurozone inflation forecasts sharply higher, to 6.0%, since the start of the Ukraine war, as energy and food prices began to soar and new supply bottlenecks emerged. That said, we still see inflation decelerating sharply to 1.3% in 2023, putting us below consensus. While we recognise significant risks to our views, inflation should slow to below 2% in H2 2023.
Find Out More