Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker shakes off Labor Day lull

US Recovery Tracker shakes off Labor Day lull - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker strengthened in the week ended September 17, rising 0.3ppts to 96.1, but remaining below its early summer peak as it continues to be restrained by health and supply concerns. Stronger employment and increased mobility drove the advance, while mildly stronger production and looser financial conditions supported the gain.

What you will learn:

  • Health conditions worsened slightly as positive test rates remained stubbornly high – a reminder there’s more work to do on the vaccination front. Demand cooled a tad as consumers spent less at restaurants but more at hotels.
  • Regional recoveries mostly softened in mid-September, led lower by the South. Alabama, Mississippi, Idaho, and West Virginia recorded the sharpest declines while California, New York, and Texas largely held their ground.
  • Covid data inspires cautious optimism as daily case rates are down almost 25% from early September, but vaccination rates have slowed to roughly 650k/day.

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