MENA | Higher oil income to propel GCC diversification efforts
The GCC recovery built momentum in Q3, thanks to vaccine progress, easing of health restrictions, and higher oil output. However, the bloc’s GDP will only
reach its pre-pandemic level in Q1 2022, lagging other EM regions.
What you will learn:
- Although footfall is the most visible and easy to measure sign of success, other benefits that are harder to visualize will accrue over a number of years. For instance, infrastructure built for the Expo will continue to benefit the economy, especially if the site can be successfully regenerated.
- A successful Expo will also help market Dubai as a place to live, work, and invest.
- With new Covid-19 cases edging down and vaccination rates rising, Qatar will ease remaining public health restrictions on October 3 under the final phase of its plan, which should support domestic activity over the rest of the year.
Finland’s growth forecast cut amid weak confidence and soaring inflation
We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe.Find Out More
Why we see eurozone inflation slowing sharply next year
We have revised our 2022 eurozone inflation forecasts sharply higher, to 6.0%, since the start of the Ukraine war, as energy and food prices began to soar and new supply bottlenecks emerged. That said, we still see inflation decelerating sharply to 1.3% in 2023, putting us below consensus. While we recognise significant risks to our views, inflation should slow to below 2% in H2 2023.Find Out More