China | Growth outlook weakens, despite expected policy easing
We’ve cut our China growth forecast for Q4 to 3.6% y/y from 5%, and for 2022 to 5.4% from 5.8%. This is despite our expectation of a shift in economic policy in Q4 to support growth.
What you will learn from this report:
- While Evergrande’s problems are unlikely to trigger a Lehman moment, they will aggravate the ongoing property sector slowdown.
- Firms in many parts of the country are facing electricity shortages or production cuts, largely caused by strict implementation of climate and safety targets by local governments. We expect the supply side constraints to be eased in coming months. Even so, however, we expect China’s GDP growth will slow significantly in Q4.
- In response to the weakening outlook, we expect policymakers to take additional steps to support growth in the coming months.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Africa Watchlist 2024: Devaluations, coups, and green hydrogen
Next year holds promise for the dawning of a new industry in Africa and somewhat of a commercial renaissance taking place in Kenya – East Africa’s economic anchor. Our watchlist for 2024 also foregrounds major currency devaluations in Ethiopia and Egypt and a strong probability of coups d’état in Cameroon and Tunisia. We expect support for the African National Congress (ANC) to drop below 50% in South Africa's general elections, but that coalitions with smaller parties will allow the ruling party to cling to power.
Find Out More
Post
Capital catalysts – Funding development when budgets are tight in Africa
In this presentation deck, we grappled with some of the Africa’s most pressing issues for 2024 and beyond. We explored Africa’s alternative funding strategies during challenging times, examined the continent’s growth hotspot, and unpacked South Africa’s political economy in the lead up to the general elections in 2024.
Find Out More