China | Growth outlook weakens, despite expected policy easing
We’ve cut our China growth forecast for Q4 to 3.6% y/y from 5%, and for 2022 to 5.4% from 5.8%. This is despite our expectation of a shift in economic policy in Q4 to support growth.
What you will learn from this report:
- While Evergrande’s problems are unlikely to trigger a Lehman moment, they will aggravate the ongoing property sector slowdown.
- Firms in many parts of the country are facing electricity shortages or production cuts, largely caused by strict implementation of climate and safety targets by local governments. We expect the supply side constraints to be eased in coming months. Even so, however, we expect China’s GDP growth will slow significantly in Q4.
- In response to the weakening outlook, we expect policymakers to take additional steps to support growth in the coming months.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
BoJ to look through a temporary decline in monetary base
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left monetary policy unchanged at today's (22nd Sep) meeting, maintaining current short- and long-term interest rates, despite another wave of yen weakening and upward pressures on JGB yields.
Find Out More
Post
Global: Worried businesses see almost 50% chance of recession
Businesses continue to downgrade their expectations for the global economy, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. On average, respondents judge there's a 47% probability of a global recession over the next 12 months.
Find Out More