US economic resilience amid supply constraints and persistent inflation
The US economy has lost some luster, but demand appears resilient in the face of lingering supply-chain disruptions. With the health situation having improved considerably over the past few weeks, consumer spending is firming and high frequency data points to an acceleration in employment growth. Still, there is no escaping the fact that limited supply and persistent inflation is weighing on activity. As a result, we’ve trimmed our GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to 5.4% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022.
What you will learn:
- The US consumer still has plenty of wind in his sails. In the coming months, an improving health situation should spur renewed consumer optimism while a resilient jobs recovery should support income growth.
- The September jobs report showed a marked slowdown in job creation amid lingering health concerns and persistent labor supply constraints.
- Headline inflation firmed 0.1ppt to 4.3% y/y in August while core inflation held steady at 3.6% y/y – where it’s been for the past three months – reflecting resilient demand and ongoing supply restraints.
Tags:
Related Services

Post
US: High debt costs suggest an industrial correction
The scale of the increases in debt costs, coupled with the low-yielding environment makes some repricing highly likely for gateway US industrial markets over the coming quarters.
Find Out More
Post
High debt costs suggest European office price correction
Our analysis suggests a 10% correction is needed on average for the major office markets in Europe to compensate for the higher cost of debt, with prime yields required to soften by 10bps-75bps to generate a low-risk interest coverage ratio at a reasonable LTV.
Find Out More