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Webinar
Global industrial outlook for 2023 remains weak

with Jeremy Leonard and Max Anderson | Online | June 14, 2023

We will present an overview and the highlights of our latest quarterly industry forecast update. Key topics include the positive developments in Europe with respect to energy prices and supply, frontloaded recovery in China after the end of zero-Covid policy and how the evolution of inflation and interest rates will keep industrial prospects weak in the near term.

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Webinar
Asia’s tug of war as China grows and the US slows

with Arup Raha | Online | June 7, 2023

While the pandemic is effectively over, its aftershocks remain for Asian economies. Balance sheets of households, firms and government will need rebuilding and bottlenecks will need to be eased. Plus, policy space is limited and the extent of the structural dislocations are not fully known. Unlike in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis or the Global Financial Crisis, Asia’s growth recovery is likely to be more difficult. Plus, a spotlight on China. There is a post-Covid growth bounce but is it sustainable? We look at tussle between the cyclical pick up and the structural drag on the economy. What does the medium-term future look like?

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Webinar
Greater China: Exploring the plausible ‘What Ifs’ to our 2023 outlook

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | May 9, 2023

Market forecasts around China’s growth this year vary considerably, reflecting differences in assumptions around policy risk, the outlook for the property sector, and the size and longevity of the reopening consumption boost. We provide our own take on China’s growth, inflation, and currency in 2023, discuss and size various risks to our own forecasts. We will also be presenting our outlook on Hong Kong, following the Q1 GDP data.

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Webinar
Commodities demand: China to the rescue?

with Toby Whittington, Diego Cacciapuoti, Kiran Ahmed and Stephen Hare | Online | March 23, 2023

China’s abrupt reopening caused commodity prices to jump earlier this year but questions remain about the strength of its recovery. We examine the extent to which China will support commodity demand this year whilst also discussing the supply-side outlook in commodity markets and implications for prices.

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Webinar
Brighter skies ahead for global air passenger demand

with Stephen Rooney and Paulos Ashebir Lakew | Online | March 21, 2023

While the economic slowdown is weighing on air passenger demand growth in advanced economies, excess savings will continue to allow realisation and prioritisation of some lingering pent-up demand. Domestic passenger volumes are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year in a number of markets, including the US. Growth will now be more evident for emerging markets, and notably for China with a clear timeline for re-opening now established and some uptick in outbound travel demand already evident as a result.

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Webinar
Global Construction Futures – global construction up US$4.2 trillion by 2037

with Graham Robinson, Jeremy Leonard, James (Aon), Tariq (Aon) and Bob (Aon) | Online | March 16, 2023

As China pivots from its Zero Covid policy and with growth in the US and most European markets expected to be negative or flatlining this year – what are the medium- and longer-term futures for the global construction industry? We expect growth engines to drive global construction up US$4.1 trillion by 2037. Global Construction Futures is the next in a series of global forecasts for construction to be published by Oxford Economics with the support of the global Construction and Infrastructure leadership team at Aon. Global Construction Futures will be launched on 16 March 2023 to a global construction industry audience. Oxford Economics will present the key highlights from the forecasts for construction and a panel of industry leaders will give their perspectives on the global construction market.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Policy peril

with Jamie Thompson and Manuela Kiehl | Online | March 13, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service, including the sensitivity of monetary policy and economic activity to near-term price developments. We highlight in particular the potential implications for the global economy of a stronger Chinese recovery and higher-than-expected inflation.

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Webinar
China: After the Two Sessions

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | March 10, 2023

The annual “Two Sessions” in China this year will see a change in personnel at the top levels, potential changes to party restructuring and major financial regulators, as well as the unveiling of key economic targets for 2023, amid the fierce confluence of domestic and external headwinds. Longer-term structural challenges, including China’s growth model transition and ageing demographics, will also dominate policy discussions. This webinar will focus on the implications of these policy announcements on our China macro outlook, and discuss the risks to our forecasts.

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Webinar
2023年の世界経済：軽微な景気後退と金融引締め長期化リスク

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 21, 2022

当社は主要国について浅く短い景気後退局面入りとそれに続く冴えない回復を予測しています。こうしたコンセンサス対比弱めの見通しに対する大きなリスクは、インフレは低下傾向を辿る下でも米国FEDによる引締めが市場の想定より長期化することです。世界的な住宅市場の調整やドル高長期化など様々なルートで影響が拡がります。加えて、欧州におけるガス需給の見通しや中国のゼロ・コロナ政策転換の展開などのリスクに関する分析もご紹介します。

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Webinar
Commodities 2023 key themes: Political uncertainty to keep markets volatile

with Kiran Ahmed, Stephen Hare, Toby Whittington and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | December 16, 2022

Uncertainties around both supply and demand, driven to a large extent by politics rather than economics have been a key feature of commodity markets this year – sanctions on Russia, Moscow’s response and China’s Covid policy, to name but a few. At the same time, central banks are ratcheting up interest rates, depressing demand. We explore the outlook for commodity prices amid this high level of uncertainty and discuss the risks to our baseline.

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Webinar
Les économies européenne et mondiale face à l’hiver et aux banques centrales

with Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani and Pierre Delage | Online | November 22, 2022

L’économie française et européenne font face à la double menace des pressions inflationnistes et de la crise énergétique, avec des perspectives globales négatives aux US et en Chine. Le scénario global d’une croissance prise entre stagflation et resserrement monétaire font crainde une récession dans les pays avancés.

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Webinar
Asian Economic Outlook for 2023

with Arup Raha and Gabriel Sterne | Online | November 16, 2022

Asian economies are no strangers to economic shocks but this time is different. In particular, China’s growth has faltered, the Fed is raising rates, and energy prices are high. This combination is unprecedented. Moreover, there is limited counter-cyclical policy space. Arup Raha will present the Asia team’s outlook on the upcoming year – the likely outcomes and main risks.

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Webinar
Cities under strain: European, Asia Pacific and North American cities face multiple challenges

with Richard Holt and Lawrence Harper-Scott | Online | October 17, 2022

In our latest quarterly round-up on world city prospects, Richard Holt our Director of Global Cities Research will set out our views on the outlook for 2023 and beyond, across many Asia Pacific, US and Canadian majors. And Lawrence Harper-Scott from our European cities forecasting team will put those cities under scrutiny. With Covid-19 still a rumbling issue in China, the Ukraine war having powerful impacts in Europe, and recession anxieties in the US and Canada, now is the time to think hard about 2023 prospects.

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Webinar
What do we want? Sovereign crisis resolution. When do we want it? Now!

with Gabriel Sterne and Evghenia Sleptsova | Online | September 19, 2022

The biggest wave of sovereign defaults since the 1980s is upon us. Global institutional challenges – in particular the IMFs’ delicate relations with China – may prove to be an obstacle to efficient crisis resolution. We unpick the issues, focusing on our detailed analysis of debt composition in the most stressed economies.

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Webinar
Asian monetary policy and FX outlook amid aggressive Fed tightening

Online | August 18, 2022

There are several large shocks currently affecting Asian economies: a hawkish Fed; sluggish Chinese growth; and high energy prices. To this add a US dollar that is stronger than it has been in about 20 years. How are Asian economies likely to navigate these turbulent times? Our economists will focus on the likely direction of monetary policy in Asian and the consequent path of key financial variables in the region.

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Webinar
Asia: What do rising inflation pressures mean for growth

with Priyanka Kishore and Tommy Wu | Online | May 6, 2022

Asia’s inflation troubles have increased with rising import prices adding on to upside pressures from domestic sources. We forecast consumer inflation to keep rising into Q3 but remain within manageable levels. Risks to our inflation view are to the upside.

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Webinar
When will Chinese outbound travel return to prominence – and who will benefit?

with Dave Goodger and Michael Shoory | Online | March 16, 2022

Chinese borders remain closed to the majority of inbound and outbound travellers, despite many other borders across the world having re-opened. The restrictions on Chinese outbound travel, in particular, is of importance to the Travel & Tourism sector due to the prominence of China as a source market. Prior to the pandemic, China had grown to become the largest source market for international travel spending and was a major source market for destinations around the globe, especially those elsewhere in Asia-Pacific. This webinar will look at how China’s tighter restrictions may limit the travel recovery for many destinations, when we can expect China to return to its pre-pandemic prominence as a source market, and who will benefit the most once Chinese travellers return. We will also illustrate what would be required for destination recovery from other source markets while Chinese travellers remain absent.

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