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Webinar
EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

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Webinar
Quarterly City Overview Webinar

with Richard Holt and Barbara Byrne Denham | Online | July 13, 2023

Office-based employment growth is vital to cities across the world. But high interest rates are creating challenges for many, and new technologies pose uncertainties going forward. In this webinar our New York and London based city economists will outline our medium term forecasts for office-based jobs growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific, and take questions about our city forecasts, generally.

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Webinar
Global industrial outlook for 2023 remains weak

with Jeremy Leonard and Max Anderson | Online | June 14, 2023

We will present an overview and the highlights of our latest quarterly industry forecast update. Key topics include the positive developments in Europe with respect to energy prices and supply, frontloaded recovery in China after the end of zero-Covid policy and how the evolution of inflation and interest rates will keep industrial prospects weak in the near term.

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Webinar
Portugal: revisão em alta à boleia do turismo

with Florent Guillarme and Ricardo Amaro | Online | May 24, 2023

A economia Portuguesa surpreendeu pela positiva no início de 2023, com o PIB a crescer 1.6% em cadeia. Este crescimento foi impulsionado pelo excelente desempenho das exportações e deixa o PIB português bem posicionado para crescer no conjunto de 2023 acima de 2% - muito acima da nossa previsão de 0.8% para a zona euro. Ainda assim, a procura interna continuou a dar sinais de abrandamento e a Oxford Economics espera um crescimento bastante mais moderado para o resto do ano.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession to follow fleeting Q1 pick-up

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | May 9, 2023

The resilient Canadian economy has only a temporary reprieve from the downturn we believe will be hard to avoid this year. Economic momentum has rapidly faded following a strong start to the year. We expect a recession will get underway this spring that will last through the remainder of 2023 as the full impact of past interest rate hikes and high prices squeeze households, credit conditions tighten in the aftermath of recent financial turmoil, the housing correction continues and the US enters recession.

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Webinar
Tech spending by US businesses will decline in the second half of 2023 but recover to over $2 trillion by 2025

with Mark Killion and Victoria Tribone | Online | May 4, 2023

New headwinds facing US business spending will cause a decline in their purchase of technology products during second half of 2023, before a modest 3% recovery in 2024 accelerates to 5.6% gain in 2025. Which industries will lead the spending on technology, and what products will be the focus of their purchases? Mark Killion, CFA, Director of US Industries, and Victoria Tribone, Economist in the Oxford Economics Industry Service, will present the latest forecast for US purchases of enterprise technology products, including possible impacts from several alternate scenarios.

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Webinar
The short-term outlook for the world’s largest cities

with Aedan McCotter, Anthony Light, Dmitriy Gruzinov and Scott McEwan | Online | April 13, 2023

The economic outlook for 2023 is a little brighter than it was at the start of the year, although recent developments in the banking sector add to downside risks. And labour markets in many major cities are set for a tough year with jobs growth slowing. Following the publication of our latest city forecasts, in this webinar we will discuss the short term employment outlook for major cities in North America, Europe and Asia.

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Webinar
Latin America’s exposure to an asset crash scenario

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | March 30, 2023

The failure of regional banks in the US did not change our baseline forecast for asset prices, central bank policy or the real economy in Latin America. But it was a reminder that the Fed could cause accidents along the way in its fight against inflation and Latin America could become a casualty in the process. Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene will provide an update on the outlook and risks for the region with a focus on its two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico.

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Webinar
Global Construction Futures – global construction up US$4.2 trillion by 2037

with Graham Robinson, Jeremy Leonard, James (Aon), Tariq (Aon) and Bob (Aon) | Online | March 16, 2023

As China pivots from its Zero Covid policy and with growth in the US and most European markets expected to be negative or flatlining this year – what are the medium- and longer-term futures for the global construction industry? We expect growth engines to drive global construction up US$4.1 trillion by 2037. Global Construction Futures is the next in a series of global forecasts for construction to be published by Oxford Economics with the support of the global Construction and Infrastructure leadership team at Aon. Global Construction Futures will be launched on 16 March 2023 to a global construction industry audience. Oxford Economics will present the key highlights from the forecasts for construction and a panel of industry leaders will give their perspectives on the global construction market.

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Webinar
China: After the Two Sessions

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | March 10, 2023

The annual “Two Sessions” in China this year will see a change in personnel at the top levels, potential changes to party restructuring and major financial regulators, as well as the unveiling of key economic targets for 2023, amid the fierce confluence of domestic and external headwinds. Longer-term structural challenges, including China’s growth model transition and ageing demographics, will also dominate policy discussions. This webinar will focus on the implications of these policy announcements on our China macro outlook, and discuss the risks to our forecasts.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Where now for the MPC?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 6, 2023

With inflation having past its peak and growing evidence that the labour market is beginning to loosen, the BoE is getting close to the end of its hiking cycle. In this webinar we react to the February MPC meeting and discuss how it has impacted on our interest rate forecasts.

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Webinar
Cruise operations resume amid heightened competition

with Dave Goodger and Christian Savelli | Online | December 5, 2022

Fully restored cruise schedules are planned for 2023 following a return to cruising in 2022 and signs of resurgent demand for this form of travel.  However, new ship construction means that there have been significant increases in capacity and cruise lines need to make important deployment decisions, with implications for port performance and also for pricing. We will share insights from our new Cruise-IP service to show the latest trends and forecast as well as illustrating the capacity, deployment and pricing challenges and how this services can support decision making.

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Webinar
Key themes for 2023 in Latin America

with Marcos Casarin, Felipe Camargo, Joan Domene and Debora Reyna | Online | November 28, 2022

We expect Latin American economies will be among the first to cut interest rates next year, but we also see the region falling into a shallow recession early in 2023. These, alongside the expectation that fiscal policy will feature more prominently in the debate, are amongst the key themes we believe will shape next year's economic outlook for Latin America.

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Webinar
European travel recovery despite looming recession – ETC 2022 Q3 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Jennifer Iduh and Chloe Parkins | Online | October 20, 2022

Strong rebound in travel continued during 2022 summer months across European destinations, despite economic slowdown. The region now sits on the brink of recession and we will explore how much this is expected to affect travel prospects for the remainder of the year, and into 2023, as well as the impact of currency shifts and potential for recovery in demand from some long-haul markets which are likely to re-open.

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Webinar
What do we want? Sovereign crisis resolution. When do we want it? Now!

with Gabriel Sterne and Evghenia Sleptsova | Online | September 19, 2022

The biggest wave of sovereign defaults since the 1980s is upon us. Global institutional challenges – in particular the IMFs’ delicate relations with China – may prove to be an obstacle to efficient crisis resolution. We unpick the issues, focusing on our detailed analysis of debt composition in the most stressed economies.

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Webinar
Are we now on the cusp of another global recession?

with Ben May | Online | September 13, 2022

On the face of it, the quarter-on-quarter fall in global GDP in Q2 suggests that the world may be lurching back into recession. In our latest global webinar, we examine whether or not worse is to come in the second half of this year and the extent to which the outlook is likely to improve in 2023.

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Webinar
Economic headwinds hinder near-term air travel recovery

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics and Andrew Matters - Economic Advisor to IATA | Online | September 1, 2022

Rebound in air travel demand has faltered somewhat mid-year as economic headwinds are hindering growth. Higher costs and squeezed incomes are having some initial, but modest, impact, while labour shortages have become a concern. We will explore these issues and our revised outlook with our partners at IATA.

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Webinar
European travel recovery is underway despite risks – ETC 2022 Q2 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics and Jennifer Iduh, ETC | Online | June 24, 2022

High inflation, including rising travel costs, and staff shortages are the two major risks threatening the ongoing recovery in European travel in 2022. In this session we will provide an overview of current trends and the outlook for European travel recovery this year. Within this, we will share the likely impacts from these headwinds as well as explaining why we believe these effects will be temporary and won’t derail growth, as well as the likelihood of more adverse outcomes.

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