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Canada Economic Outlook: Recession to follow fleeting Q1 pick-up

The resilient Canadian economy has only a temporary reprieve from the downturn we believe will be hard to avoid this year. Economic momentum has rapidly faded following a strong start to the year. We expect a recession will get underway this spring that will last through the remainder of 2023 as the full impact of past interest rate hikes and high prices squeeze households, credit conditions tighten in the aftermath of recent financial turmoil, the housing correction continues and the US enters recession.

Tony Stillo

Director of Canada Economics

+1 (437) 690 0267

Tony Stillo

Director of Canada Economics

Toronto, Canada

Tony Stillo is the Director of Canada Economics at Oxford Economics. He leads the team responsible for preparing the macroeconomic forecast for Canada using Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model, reporting on key data releases, as well as producing and presenting research on key issues affecting the Canadian economy. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2018, Tony spent much of his career at the Ontario Ministry of Finance where he most recently led a team responsible for economic modelling, forecasting and impact analysis.

Michael Davenport

Economist, Canada

+1 (437) 690 0266

Michael Davenport

Economist, Canada

Toronto, Canada

Michael is an Economist with a particular focus on the Canadian economy. He primarily supports the Director of Canada Economics in producing macroeconomic research and forecasts, monitoring the Canadian economy, and liaising with clients and the media.

Michael first joined Oxford Economics Canada as an Economic Research Analyst Intern in the Toronto office in early 2019 and has since been promoted to an Economist. Michael holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Financial Management from Wilfrid Laurier University.

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