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Webinar
Key themes for 2024 – another year of price weakness

with Diego Cacciapuoti, Stephen Hare and Toby Whittington | Online | December 15, 2023

Energy and metal markets have experienced a sharp reversal in prices this year, as we expected, diminishing the Super cycle thesis of our competitors. In this webinar, we examine the key themes affecting commodity markets in 2024 as the energy transition gathers pace and discuss our leading calls for prices in the year ahead. Overall, we expect another year of price weakness as we forecast the global economy to grow at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis, excluding the pandemic. We also anticipate supply to improve across commodity markets next year, which will further weigh on prices.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service – From Bright to Bleak: Taking Stock of Climate Futures

with Beatrice Tanjangco, Toby Whittington and Manuela Kiehl | Online | October 17, 2023

Oxford Economics produces climate scenarios updated quarterly, using our world class models to quantify physical and transitional risks at a macroeconomic and sectoral level. Our models are hybrid structural models with transparent, verifiable channels and clear, detailed reporting on assumptions and methodology. This quarter we have expanded our coverage to highlight the full spectrum of the physical and transition risks associated with climate change. Scenarios at the tail end of distribution such as Energy Disorder focusses on energy security and Climate Catastrophe focuses on what happens if governments fail to meet policy pledges – both mean the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere intensifies and result in more severe physical damages that accelerate over time. These scenarios are critical for risk assessment. At the other end of the spectrum, there are multiple paths to keep temperatures in check, and these can be transformative or disruptive. In this webinar, we will present our findings across a range of net zero scenarios and the more extreme physical risk scenarios. We will also discuss new model developments and updates to our fossil fuel demand forecasting methodology.

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Webinar
Global pump market outlook and implications of the energy transition

with Andy Logan and Jeremy Leonard | Online | July 27, 2023

The global pump market faces a challenging near-term future amid high interest rates and weakness in capital spending. But the impact of the energy transition will bring even larger structural shifts that will create winners and losers across industrial sectors. Join us for an overview of the market, drawing from our recently released Global Pump Market Outlook report as well as our Industry Climate Service.

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Webinar
Energy Disorder

with David Winter and Manuela Kiehl | Online | July 19, 2023

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter our new scenario – Energy Disorder – demonstrates the cost of policy action that prioritises energy security over decarbonisation. Weak mitigation across sectors causes high physical climate damages. Protectionism associated with regionalisation and more divisive international relations generates trade frictions that cause further hits to output.

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Webinar
Consumer Outlook – Risks & Opportunities 2023/2024

with Florent Guillarme and Graeme Harrison | Online | June 27, 2023

In 2020, Covid triggered a shock to global consumer spending like we’ve only seen in war times. However, it also created conditions for a rebound through a saving cushion for households, even more for the wealthiest. So despite unprecedented inflation from 2022, particularly rising prices for non-discretionary items like energy and food, followed by unprecedented monetary tightening & raising rates, consumer spending in nominal terms (much less so in real or volume terms) has proved surprisingly resilient globally thanks to savings, strong GDP and nominal earnings, but also resilient stock markets, labour markets and wealth underpinned by the travel recovery too, but for how long and what are the Consumer turbulences to come ahead? The webinar will explore how Consumers will react from now, to the end of monetary tightening, with GDP and inflation weakening in Europe, the US and China and the with the effect of recent developments starting to bite more. It will cover the macro context (GDP, income, savings, earnings, inflation, labour market, interest rates and credit, confidence and government policy), including macro factors more relevant to the luxury sector (e.g. wealth and asset prices) and how different socio-economic groups are affected. It will also go into a deeper dive into the consumer sector (aggregate and a breakdown of consumer spend and retail sales in volume and value terms and into different goods and services products), trends in online vs in-store spending, the recovery in tourism spending and trends in income and price elasticity.

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