Global Climate Service – From Bright to Bleak: Taking Stock of Climate Futures
Date: Tuesday 17 October 2023
Oxford Economics produces climate scenarios updated quarterly, using our world class models to quantify physical and transitional risks at a macroeconomic and sectoral level. Our models are hybrid structural models with transparent, verifiable channels and clear, detailed reporting on assumptions and methodology.
This quarter we have expanded our coverage to highlight the full spectrum of the physical and transition risks associated with climate change. Scenarios at the tail end of distribution such as Energy Disorder focusses on energy security and Climate Catastrophe focuses on what happens if governments fail to meet policy pledges – both mean the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere intensifies and result in more severe physical damages that accelerate over time. These scenarios are critical for risk assessment. At the other end of the spectrum, there are multiple paths to keep temperatures in check, and these can be transformative or disruptive.
In this webinar, we will present our findings across a range of net zero scenarios and the more extreme physical risk scenarios. We will also discuss new model developments and updates to our fossil fuel demand forecasting methodology.
Beatrice Tanjangco
Lead Climate Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8049
Beatrice Tanjangco
Lead Climate Economist
London, United Kingdom
Beatrice is a Lead Climate Economist. She produces Research Briefs on Climate Change and the economy and supports the expansion of Oxford Economics’ climate capabilities under the Global Climate Service.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2022, she worked on projects in climate adaptation, resilience, and risk as a Research Fellow at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI). Before focusing on climate, she worked for various international organizations (the World Bank and Asian Development Bank) and think tanks, working on topics such as trade, finance, competition, and industry analysis. She also worked in the Oxford Economics Singapore office for several years. Bea holds an MSc in Specialised Economic Analysis from the Barcelona School of Economics, with a BA in Economics with a minor in Literature from the Ateneo de Manila University.
Toby Whittington
Lead Economist
+44 (0) 203 910 8046
Private: Toby Whittington
Lead Economist
London, United Kingdom
Toby joined Oxford Economics in July 2014 as an Economist with the Industry team. He is currently responsible for the intermediate goods sector forecasts as well as contributing to Industry consultancy projects. Toby was educated at Birkbeck College, University of London, where he gained a first-class degree in Financial Economics, followed by a MSc degree in Economics. His MSc dissertation investigated the transmission mechanism between the Bank of England’s quantitative easing programme and UK interest rates.
Manuela Kiehl
Climate Economist, Scenarios & Macroeconomic Modelling
+44 (0) 203 910 8007
Private: Manuela Kiehl
Climate Economist, Scenarios & Macroeconomic Modelling
London, United Kingdom
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