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Webinar
Risks to a US soft landing

with Ryan Sweet and Michael Pearce | Online | April 9, 2024

The economy is chugging along, and the outlook continues to turn a little rosier because of the strength of the labor market, easing in financial market conditions, solid household and nonfinancial corporate balance sheets along with disinflation. However, the economy is expected to moderate, leaving it vulnerable to anything that goes wrong.

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Webinar
Eurozone Key themes 2024 – Fragile recovery will gain impulse

with Tomas Dvorak | Online | December 7, 2023

After grinding to a halt in 2023, we expect the cogs of the eurozone economy to start slowly turning again in 2024, gaining more momentum as the year goes on. Our key call is for faster disinflation, which together with a weak growth outlook will prompt the ECB to normalise policy earlier and more forcefully than what the markets are expecting. This should in turn help to usher in stronger consumption growth. But there are potential headwinds aplenty – looming fiscal consolidations, possible supply shocks or hysteresis effects holding activity back.

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Webinar
Global EM Key themes for 2024 – disinflation prevails

with Gabriel Sterne and Sergi Lanau | Online | December 5, 2023

Global economic travails will present a challenge for EMs next year, but we see EM disinflation progressing more smoothly than 2023. Covid and other legacies will still trouble several EMs; we outline our biggest concerns and where we see the greatest opportunities.

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Webinar
Identifying attractive EM local bonds

with Lucila Bonilla and Tomas Dvorak | Online | November 14, 2023

Disinflation momentum, weakening economic activity, high real rates, and attractive term premia explain our positive view on EM local currency debt. Weak growth raises the risk of inflation undershoots and faster monetary policy normalisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Latin America’s disinflation progressed smoothly, but growth outperformed expectations this year, prompting shallower normalisation paths. Markets price in too few rate cuts in some of these economies. We continue to tilt our local currency debt portfolio into these regions and will lay the case for our preferred stories.

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