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June / July 2020

Latest news confirms that the global economy suffered a dire April as peak lockdown was reached. There are growing signs that activity in some parts of the world may have begun to recover in May as lockdown restrictions started to ease but, while we expect a near-term rebound in activity, we now forecast that world GDP will shrink by just over 5% this year.

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  • Jul 06 2020

    As lockdowns were loosened in May, consumers headed back to the shops. But while a recovery in employment and the running down of savings should underpin strong rises in consumer spending, we do not expect to regain Q4 2019 levels for another 18 months:

  • Jul 06 2020

    While transatlantic policy coordination has been lacking, the strong US and eurozone responses have been surprisingly similar in size and scope. Combined fiscal & central bank aid will approach 30% of GDP by year-end, with loan guarantees worth 50% of GDP:

  • Jul 06 2020

    Our research finds that the economic impact of future climate change will severely impact the livelihood of populations in a large number of countries. In aggregate we find that 3C of warming by 2100 could reduce the level of GDP in 2100 by 21%. More here:

  • Jul 03 2020

    Less stringent lockdowns should mean the Nordic economies endure smaller falls in GDP than the eurozone. But Sweden's light-touch approach will not leave it much better off than its neighbours due to voluntary social distancing and supply chain disruption:

  • Jul 03 2020

    The key economic issues for Hong Kong are if it will retain its role as a gateway in & out of China and its status as a global financial hub. Our baseline is that Hong Kong will broadly maintain its current role, if perhaps not as prominently as before:

  • Jul 03 2020

    Our measure of China's credit impulse saw the fastest increase since end-2017 in May, which will support the economic recovery. This pickup has been in line with the mandate given during May's NPC meetings and recent policy easing measures:

  • Jul 01 2020

    Our US Recovery Tracker rose by 2.3ppts in the week ending June 19, having fallen the week before. Stronger mobility and rebounding equity prices drove the gain, but rising COVID infections led to the first decline in the health tracker since mid-April: