The leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis

July / August 2020

After a dire start to Q2 in April, the global economy has since staged a robust rebound as lockdown restrictions in many regions have eased. But despite a strong initial bounce, high unemployment and surging corporate debt will limit the scale of the revival in H2 and beyond. And the renewed rise in Covid-19 cases in parts of the world shows that considerable downside risks remain.

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CORONAVIRUS - LATEST UPDATES AND ANALYSIS: Retail surge unlikely to last...

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Latest Analysis

  • Jul 14 2020

    Vietnam: On the path to recovery

    The global recession induced by the pandemic has hit Vietnam hard. However, its effective containment of COVID-19 should allow for a quicker rebound than most in the region. That said, it is vulnerabl...

  • Jul 13 2020

    Coronavirus Watch: Caution prevails beyond Q3

    We have revised up our forecast for global GDP growth in 2020 this month by about 0.5ppts to -4.5%, largely on the back of evidence of a faster near-term growth rebound as lockdown restrictions are re...

  • Jul 13 2020

    United States: US Executive Briefing – July 2020

    The unique feature of the Global Coronavirus Recession (GCR) is its speed. Following a dramatic near-20% plunge in activity in March and April, consumer spending and business investment have exper...

  • Jul 13 2020

    Singapore: PAP to focus on job creation, keeping labour mix stable

    People’s Action Party (PAP) retained its supermajority in the Parliament in the 2020 general elections held on 10 July. However, in a major development, Worker’s Party (WP) – the key opposition party...

  • Jul 13 2020

    United Kingdom: House prices are certain to fall, but by how much?

    We expect a peak-to-trough fall in UK house prices of about 7% – a smaller drop than in the two previous downturns. A lower peak in unemployment, lower debt servicing costs, and bank forbearance will...

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In the media

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Latest tweets

  • Jul 13 2020

    Evidence of a faster rebound as lockdown restrictions are relaxed has led us to revise up our forecast for 2020 global GDP growth. And we see the average quarterly GDP growth rate in 2021 being roughly double that seen in 2019, similar to the GFC aftermath

  • Jul 13 2020

    During the COVID-19 crisis, the real estate sector demonstrated resilience and is predicted to have a slow yet strong recovery. Click here to get more insights on the impact of the crisis on the sector: #oxfordeconomics #epra #reits #listedrealestate

  • Jul 13 2020

    Our report for EPRA analyses the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on European listed real estate to shed light on the impact of the crisis on property markets. To get more insights, click here: #oxfordeconomics #epra #reits #covid #listedrealestate

  • Jul 13 2020

    We expect a 7% peak-to-trough fall in UK house prices, a smaller fall than the last 2 downturns. A lower peak in unemployment, lower debt servicing costs & bank forbearance mean fewer forced sales. But renewed lockdowns could trigger a much worst outcome:

  • Jul 10 2020

    We expect the massive easing in financial conditions since March and strong initial rebound in activity to encourage the #ECB to hold off any major policy changes at next week's meeting. But we may see a debate about PEPP composition. Our preview is here: