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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
July / August 2020

After a dire start to Q2 in April, the global economy has since staged a robust rebound as lockdown restrictions in many regions have eased. But despite a strong initial bounce, high unemployment and surging corporate debt will limit the scale of the revival in H2 and beyond. And the renewed rise in Covid-19 cases in parts of the world shows that considerable downside risks remain.

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CORONAVIRUS - LATEST UPDATES AND ANALYSIS: Bumpy stabilisation...

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  • Aug 04 2020

    Largely as we expected, GDP data for Q2 published so far show very steep declines of 10%-15% in major economies. Early indications for Q2 for some emerging markets suggest their GDP slumps will be as bad or worse. bit.ly/2XrSGBU

  • Jul 31 2020

    US Recovery Tracker - the economy needs a booster shot bit.ly/30f225B

  • Jul 31 2020

    Services-oriented states are suffering the greatest disruptions from the #coronavirus pandemic. Not only did these states sustain greater damage than goods-oriented states during the initial downturn, but their recoveries have lagged.

    Read more here bit.ly/3ggDZJp

  • Jul 31 2020

    Chart of the week: US coronavirus reproduction rates bit.ly/3fdMljC

  • Jul 30 2020

    Our US Recovery Tracker rebounded slightly last week. But the demand & employment components are showing some worrying fissures just as Congress is debating additional fiscal aid. And despite the national increase, the Recovery Trackers of 41 states fell: bit.ly/33eC3x9

  • Jul 30 2020

    Following this week's FOMC meeting, we look for the Fed to adopt explicit forward guidance sometime in the fall, following the completion of its policy framework review. We forecast rate lift-off will not take place until 2024: bit.ly/2Ez2CD3

  • Jul 30 2020

    While incoming retail sales data suggest a V-shape recovery, these data don't tell the whole story. Recoveries are uneven across economies, while retail sales are a poor guide to overall consumer spending in the current environment: bit.ly/3k12Zqn