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December / January 2019

  • The world economy will end 2018 on a soft note. But we expect the expansion to regain momentum in 2019, with 2.8% global growth after 3.0% for 2018.
  • The US and China will slow simultaneously next year. However, US growth is still set to stay above trend, bolstered by fiscal stimulus, while activity in China will be underpinned by policy moves.
  • Weaker oil prices and, from mid-2019, a boost to trade and EMs from a weaker dollar are also set to support growth prospects.
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Latest tweets

  • Structural change in corporate savings is a threat to global growth. Firms’ net savings are up 2-3ppts of GDP since early 90s. Many factors - but incentives to execs to prioritise stock buybacks over investment risk a long-term, low-growth feedback loop:

  • Against consensus - but as we forecast - in #Russia, the central bank #CBR ordered another rate rise on Friday, to 7.75%. With a weaker ruble and impending Jan'y VAT hike set to take inflation to 6% in H1 '19 vs a 4% CBR target, the move isn't surprising:

  • In 2019, the key theme for #USeconomy will be the search for a "soft-landing". Headwinds from higher input and borrowing costs, #protectionism and slowing global expansion will bring US growth down to 2% by end-2019. Our top calls for the new year:

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE exec summary here: The world economy will end 2018 on a soft note, but we expect the global expansion to regain momentum in 2019, with 2.8% global growth, after 3.0% for 2018.

  • RT @GregDaco: About 50% economists surveyed by @WSJ expect the #Fed to pause rate increases in the first half of 2019. Most see 2 rate hike…

  • RT @GregDaco: US #retail sales top estimates w/ 0.2% rise in Nov despite -2.3% #gasoline stations sales Core sales +0.9% after +0.7%in Oct!…

  • RT @GregDaco: Looking at momentum, #retail sales up 4.2% y/y while core sales +4.4%. These data point to solid consumer spending in Q4 arou…