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June/July 2018

  • Mounting trade tensions and dearer oil may worsen an ongoing global slowdown. Eurozone activity is faltering and risks cloud emerging market prospects.
  • But we do not expect a sharp loss of momentum and still see only moderate deceleration in global growth.
  • We maintain our world growth forecasts at 3.1% this year and 2.9% for 2019, supported by US fiscal stimulus and healthy Chinese domestic demand.
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  • In @FTAlphaville, OE's Guillermo Tolosa explains our in-depth analysis of global capital flows and risks for bond markets from a prospective liquidity squeeze, triggered by the end of #ECB #QE:

  • Political developments in #Italy may mean a bumpy ride for bond markets in months ahead. But market discipline is likely to ensure fears about major fiscal loosening that stoked default concerns don’t materialise. And Italy still has some fiscal headroom:

  • Pres Trump upped the ante in the US-China #trade conflict, bringing a full-blown #tradewar closer. If new #tariffs by both sides go ahead it will hv significant econ impact on China, the US and rest of the world at a sensitive time for the #globaleconomy:

  • RT @GregDaco: Here come the #ChinaTariffs! @OxfordEconomics estimates that 25% tariffs on $50bn imports + retaliation will reduce #GDP by 0…

  • We rank the #EmergingMarket winners and losers from rising #oil, slowing #trade, and #liquidity pressures #emergingmarkets. #EMs most at risk include #Turkey, #Argentina, #Ukraine and some in Asia:

  • Our 200 economists have updated our monthly forecasts. Trade tensions and dearer oil may worsen an ongoing global slowdown. But we don't expect sharp momentum loss and maintain our world growth forecasts at 3.1% this yr, 2.9% next. FREE exec summary here:

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