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June/July 2018

  • Mounting trade tensions and dearer oil may worsen an ongoing global slowdown. Eurozone activity is faltering and risks cloud emerging market prospects.
  • But we do not expect a sharp loss of momentum and still see only moderate deceleration in global growth.
  • We maintain our world growth forecasts at 3.1% this year and 2.9% for 2019, supported by US fiscal stimulus and healthy Chinese domestic demand.
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  • RT @GregDaco: As @OxfordEconomics had anticipated, Trump upped the ante by threatening to impose 10% #tariffs on $200bn of imports from Chi…

  • RT @GregDaco: Impact on US economy could be worse since #tariffs on $250bn would directly impact consumer goods, affect US multinationals i…

  • RT @GregDaco: An examination of bilateral #tariffs (via @WTO) between the US and its trading partners does not reflect severely unequal tre…

  • EC gave the go-ahead for #EU #tariffs on €2.8bn of US imports in retaliation for US tariffs on metal imports from the EU. ~1% of all EU goods imports from the US will be hit - but that makes up only 0.02% of EU GDP so the economic impact is close to nil:

  • RT @BenMayEconomist: Italian government bonds (2017) v sub prime (2008)

  • RT @OliverRakau: Today EU Comm. gave expected green light to retaliatory tariffs on US imports. But they are unlikely to discourage the US…

  • RT @GregDaco: Perhaps the most obvious point to make is that in a low tariff world there is more to lose from rising trade tensions than to…