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March 2018

  • Buoyant world GDP growth of 3.2% this year will be followed by 3% growth in 2018, the best two-year run since 2010/11.
  • The recent equity market upset has not triggered a full-blown correction; we see little impact on growth.
  • Increased protectionism raises concerns of a trade war which increases downside risks to our forecasts.
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  • Our 200 economists have updated our monthly forecasts. Our analysis suggests that the global economy remains set for its best 2-yr run of growth since 2010-11, despite the equity market upset and US protectionist moves. Download our free executive summary:

  • The rising power of #consumers in #China is set to reverberate through the domestic and world economies, and global #retailing. China's consumer market will be bigger than America's by 2034, we find. Find out more about the #megatrend in our latest blog:

  • Find out more about our Economic & Political Risk Evaluator in our Forward Thinking blog:

  • Looking at different economies’ exposure to fixed- and floating-rate private sector #debt reveals vulnerabilities to rising interest rates. #Hong Kong, #Sweden, #China and #Australia potentially most exposed via floating rates to rising debt service costs:

  • Our Sovereign Risk Indicator suggests that #Spain is due a credit rating upgrade. Will S&P oblige when it publishes its latest review on 23 March? We think it will raise it one notch to A-

  • We think the US budget deficit will rise to ~4.5% of GDP by end-2020, leading the US current account deficit to swell further, too. In the past, such twin deficits contributed to global financial instability. But we see little risk in the current context:

  • The #InternetofThings - #IoT - demands a new look at security. Firms need strategies to mitigate cyber-risks. OE worked with the IBM Institute for Business Value Benchmarking Program to look at the many issues and how they may be tackled: