Key take-aways from COP30

COP30 came to a close on Nov 21, bringing an end to two weeks of intense negotiations that led to an agreement in the form of a Global Mutirao, a Portuguese word of Indigenous origin that means “collective effort”.

After some overtime and much frustration expressed by various countries at drafts of the final text that were circulated in the final days of the Conference, language acceptable to all Parties was ultimately agreed.

As we highlighted at the beginning of this series, ten years after the Paris Agreement, COP 30’s agenda had placed a strong emphasis on countries’ implementation of their emissions reduction target and, for the first time, several workstreams included discussions on unilateral trade policies.

Countries acknowledge a likely temperature overshoot

On emissions reductions, countries reaffirmed their commitment to the goal of the Paris agreement. However, while countries agreed to keep the 1.5C objective ‘within reach’, they also recognised that the carbon budget compatible with this objective is ‘now small and being rapidly depleted’ and, for the first time, that global temperature would likely overshoot this objective.

Discussions will be held on unilateral trade measures

Turning to trade, climate-related trade measures featured in the final decision for the first time since they initially appeared in the 1992 UNFCCC. Countries reaffirmed that climate measures, “including unilateral ones, should not constitute” trade restrictions that are “arbitrary” or “discriminat[ory]” and agreed to create three annual “dialogues” on trade, to be held at the Bonn meetings in 2026, 2027 and 2028.

For several years, countries had tried but failed to get unilateral trade measures (UTMs) onto the agenda of the COP negotiations. The issue was finally included in COP30’s agenda, after Bolivia introduced a proposal on behalf of the Like-Minded Developing Countries.

In some countries, such measures can materially impact export-oriented, emission-intensive sectors and, hence, raise substantial concern. Concerns about and opposition to such measures grew louder when the EU introduced a proposal for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2021.

Some of the EU’s main trading partners—such as India and China—have repeatedly raised the issue with the European Commission. But the EU has so far refused to bow to pressure—including from China during the COP. The financial obligations associated with CBAM will come into force next January as planned.

Adaptation finance tripled within the New Collective Quantified Goal

My final words focus on climate finance, i.e., flows to help developing countries deal with climate change and fund their transition. The topic influenced several conversations despite not being part of the official agenda. At the last COP in Baku, countries had reached an agreement on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), committing advanced economies to provide at least $300bn of climate finance to developing economies, and launched a “Baku to Belem Roadmap to 1.3T”. This year’s agreement brings a more specific commitment to at least triple adaptation finance (from current levels) by 2035 within the envelope of the NCQG and takes note of the roadmap.

Several observers and commentators have expressed disappointment at the lack of ambition of the final agreement on several agenda items of this year’s COP. Yet, our natural inclination to focus on what was not achieved should not draw attention away from the tangible progress, however small, that was made.

Next year’s iteration of the COP will be hosted by Turkey in Antalya jointly with Australia, under an unprecedented agreement to share the presidency. Until then, with an ever-greater focus on implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures, countries will be scrutinized for their progress on operationalizing their commitments and this year’s agreement.

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