Affordability is top of mind as US government shutdown ends

The end of the government shutdown did not alter the broader economic trajectory, but it did create a sharp swing in the sequential pace of GDP growth within the November baseline outlook. As Washington refocuses on affordability and agencies restart delayed data releases, the coming weeks will offer clearer insight into how policy debates, price pressures, and election-year dynamics may shape the near-term environment.

• The possibility of another shutdown in early 2026 remains on the table, though its potential economic impact now appears more limited.
• The delayed September employment report is set to be released next week and is unlikely to influence the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.
• Affordability dominated policy discussions in Washington, from healthcare subsidy negotiations to the surprising idea of a 50-year mortgage.
• Tariff relief on select food imports may slightly ease grocery costs, but the overall inflation effect will be minimal while signaling more pre-election tariff adjustments ahead.