Australia’s MRNA Advantage: Jobs, Health and Economic Resilience

Oxford Economics Australia provided Moderna with an independent and comprehensive evaluation of its new MRNA facility. The project deliverables included in-depth economic contribution modelling that measured GDP and employment outcomes, welfare economics analysis that captured the benefits of domestic vaccine manufacturing for pandemic preparedness, and an assessment of long-term research and development spillovers. Together, these deliverables gave Moderna a credible evidence base to demonstrate the broader value of its investment for Australia’s economy, society, and health system.

Background: Global vaccine reliance left Australia vulnerable

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia’s vaccine rollout was heavily dependent on overseas supply chains. This created delays and shortages, increasing both health and economic risks for the country. The lack of local manufacturing meant that Australia had limited control over its response timeline, exposing vulnerabilities that hindered its ability to act quickly during a crisis.

The Challenge: Building sovereign capability for the future

The challenge was to ensure Australia would not face similar vulnerabilities in the future. Policymakers and industry stakeholders needed robust, independent analysis to guide investment in domestic mRNA manufacturing. The key test was to show that such an investment would not only serve as a safeguard in health emergencies but also provide long-term value to the economy and innovation ecosystem. Without clear evidence, it would be difficult to justify the scale of resources required to build a sovereign capability of this kind.

Solution: Independent analysis that demonstrated long-term value

Oxford Economics Australia delivered a suite of analyses that provided Moderna with the evidence it needed. The economic contribution modelling quantified how the facility would support GDP and create jobs during both construction and operations. The welfare economics assessment measured the pandemic preparedness benefits, showing how faster access to locally manufactured vaccines could avoid lockdown costs, reduce mortality, and support wellbeing. The research and development analysis highlighted the spillover effects of Moderna’s investments in research grants, clinical trials, and partnerships with universities, demonstrating the facility’s role in advancing biomedical innovation. These deliverables enabled Moderna to clearly demonstrate that its facility is more than just a health security asset – it is also an engine for economic growth, innovation, and resilience.