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A referendum on European Union (EU) membership will take place on Thursday 23rd June. If the British public vote to leave, so-called ‘Brexit’ will have wide-scale implications for businesses across the industrial spectrum. Being prepared for the impact of this eventuality on business operations is critical for business and trade leaders.
Oxford Economics has completed a quantitative research study to provide the information you need to be prepared. Using our world-class global economic model, with full analysis and data sets available for nine alternative Brexit scenarios, it addresses what had been, until now, a major gap due to research that has either been limited in scope or designed to support a pre-conceived political agenda.
The study represents a uniquely comprehensive and impartial assessment of the implications of Brexit for economic activity in the UK and the rest of the world.
Answering the important questions faced by businesses
The research enables business leaders to assess the key risks and opportunities that Brexit presents, answering questions such as:
How will trading patterns be affected by Brexit?
What will be the impact of Brexit on capital flows including FDI?
How might restrictions on free movement of people affect migration flows
How will this feed through to the labour market and the wider economy?
What will regulatory freedoms mean for the business environment?
Exploring the range of different scenarios that might result
In the event of Brexit, outcomes will vary depending on the kind of trade settlement that the UK is able to negotiate and how it opts to use any new-found policy freedoms. To account for this, we have developed a number of scenarios framed around alternative trading arrangements, including: scenarios based on the Swiss model (where access to the single market is the product of continued bi-lateral negotiation); a customs union (like Turkey); a Free Trade Agreement with the EU (that eliminates export tariff barriers); and in which UK-EU’s trading relationship is determined according to WTO’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) criterion, and enabling the total repatriation of powers.
Giving you the tools you need to assess how Brexit will affect your business
Our results are available now. Signing up to receive them enables you to read all about our findings in the research report, privileged access to the databank that documents the quantitative results for all nine scenarios, support from our specialised team of Brexit economists who can help you to interpret and present our analysis and an invitation to a springtime launch event in London where the topic will be discussed by a panel of influential figures from across the debate. The final results detail Brexit’s impact on activity across a range of core metrics including GDP growth, trade volumes, inflation, household spending, and employment. The analysis provides insights into Brexit’s impact on the UK property market, implications for UK and global asset prices, and the differential effect on the UK’s major economic sectors.
How to become a subscriber
To find out more about our Brexit programme, fill out the form below, or contact: