Research Briefing | Mar 30, 2021

Vaccine raises UK growth hopes, but industrial activity to be buffeted by Brexit

UK sector outlook Q1 2021

Our latest UK sector forecasts show that we expect services will outpace industrial production this year, in contrast to the sector dynamics other advanced economies.

What you will learn:

  • The weakness in industry primarily reflects the impact of the end of the Brexit transition period.
  • The UK-EU FTA will keep trade tariff- and quota-free for qualifying goods. But the new relationship has still introduced customs and regulatory barriers that will weigh on the competitiveness of industry.
  • Export-orientated and highly-regulated sectors such as autos and chemicals respectively will be among the worst hit.

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