Research Briefing
09 Oct 2025
US States Feel the Heat of Inbound Travel Declines
International visit declines and a fallout of Canadian arrivals continue for the US.
The decline in international arrivals to the US continues—and some states feel the heat more than others. August saw the fourth straight month of inbound travel declines, while reduced Canadian visitation continued its fallout.
The latest update to International State Travel (IST) data, released in early September, provides a comprehensive view of international overnight visitor arrivals and spending across US states. Explore these key takeaways and more in the full briefing:
- Arrivals from Canada continue to fall sharply, with land arrivals down 33.9% and air arrivals down 25.4% year-over-year in August.
- We expect the sharpest declines in overnight visits to impact northern border states, especially New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, and North Dakota, which experienced declines of 20% or more.
- Per capita, the loss of Canadian visitor spending shows Alaska, Nevada, the District of Columbia, and Hawaii will likely experience the greatest losses.
- Maine, North Dakota, Vermont and Montana show the largest hotel occupancy declines, with each falling 3.5% or more year-to-date through August.
- We project total international visits to decline 8.2% this year, with international spending estimated to fall 4.1% in 2025 vs. 2024.
We continue to monitor these trends across the industry.

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