Global trade is losing momentum

Global trade is falling – and it’s got further to go. Our Maritime Trade Index, a daily tracker of seaborne trade, shows global trade volumes are down around 1.3% m/m in mid-September, taking it 3.4% lower than its April peak. By the end of the decade, trade will be around 4% below our pre-tariff baseline.

• The US will drive the pullback. US goods imports will collapse more than 6% in 2026, with orders from China, Mexico and Canada facing the biggest hits. Temporary rerouting through ASEAN and Europe will initially support these economies, but weaker US demand and efforts to curb transhipments will dampen prospects in 2026.

• Supply chains are shifting. As tariffs limit China’s ability to sell into US markets, new regional production hubs will develop, particularly in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and ASEAN. China will continue to play an important role in these supply chains; the fastest-growing export routes over the next 5 years include China to Poland, China to Saudi Arabia, and China to Vietnam.

• Tariff exemptions matter. Trade in autos and parts is one of the most disrupted sectors globally, particularly in North America. The EU’s tariff concessions enable Germany to increase its global market share in the sector. Similarly, the EU’s capped pharmaceutical tariffs will provide a tailwind to export growth in the years ahead, as competitors navigate higher import duties.