Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is for some form of divided government that will not alter the current trajectory of industrial growth. If either side achieves a...
US Elections 2024
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While a Kamala Harris presidency wouldn't materially alter the economic outlook for Canada. Another term for Donald Trump would usher...
Research Briefing
Though Vice President Kamala Harris' chances of winning the election have improved since her debate with former President Donald Trump,...
Research Briefing
We created a real-time tracker of unauthorized migrants to the US, the driving force behind the nation's post-pandemic immigration surge....
Research Briefing
Economic policy uncertainty is rising earlier than normal for a presidential election year, and this has implications for the Q4...
Research Briefing
The economy remains in transition and is settling into a more sustainable pace of growth, with next year being decent...
Research Briefing
As the US election approaches, the potential economic outcomes are on everyone’s mind. Regardless of the result, the economy is...
Research Briefing
Vice President Kamala Harris has released the first part of her economic plan. In it, she proposes an expansion of...
Research Briefing
The three northern swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are must-win states for Vice President Kamala Harris and former...
Research Briefing
We estimate that a 1ppt rise in US tariffs cuts imports from China by 2.5% in the long term.
Research Briefing
Using our Global Industry Model, we have modelled the sectoral impacts of two scenarios in which former President Donald Trump returns to the...
Research Briefing
If President Biden did not drop out, the outcome of the election appeared to be clear, but things have changed...
Research Briefing
President Biden's decision to withdraw as a candidate caps a string of major political events that has roiled the 2024...
Research Briefing
President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the election doesn’t warrant any immediate changes to our election scenarios nor...
The outcome of the presidential and congressional elections this November will be pivotal for the outlook in 2025 and beyond....
Research Briefing
During the next presidential term, the economy will receive a net boost from federal policymaking, and inflation will come in...
Research Briefing
A Democratic sweep of the 2024 presidential and congressional elections would mean major changes to social benefits programs and tax...
Research Briefing
A second Trump presidency could have a moderate impact on European growth based on our simulation of his proposed policies....
The near-term outlook for US industry is expected to be relatively steady. However, the results of the upcoming election could...
Research Briefing
We subjectively assign a greater probability of a divided government after the 2024 elections rather than one that is fully...
