An update of our US presidential election models

President Biden’s decision to withdraw as a candidate caps a string of major political events that has roiled the 2024 presidential race. As of now, former President Donald Trump is still the favorite to win, with our subjective odds of a Trump victory in November at 55% but Biden’s withdrawal adds considerable uncertainty.

What you will learn:

• Despite the extraordinary turmoil in the presidential race, we still think that swing voters will vote on pocketbook issues, namely their perception of inflation, and have therefore updated our three presidential election models.
• Biden dropping out does not require an overhaul to our election models. Changes in our economic and political variables will capture voter sentiment toward the presidential candidate of the incumbent president’s party, whether the candidate is the incumbent or his successor, which will most likely be Vice President Kamala Harris.
• If swing voters fixate on the level of prices and how much they have risen since Inauguration Day, they will vote Trump back into the White House. Just like the polls, this first model, which assumes swing voters still have sticker shock from the pandemic-era inflation surge, shows Trump to be most dominant in Sun Belt swing states and less so in northern ones.

For more insights on the 2024 US Presidential Election, click here.