Predicting how swing voters in battleground US counties will vote

The three northern swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are must-win states for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Our presidential election forecast at the county level has the former president projected to win Pennsylvania by 41,489 votes, while we predict the vice president clinches Michigan by 23,948 and Wisconsin by 29,024.

What you will learn:

• Pennsylvania is the biggest prize of these three swing states, and we find that county election outcomes in the Keystone State are especially sensitive to changes in unemployment. According to our models, higher joblessness, even if from extremely low levels, dings Harris’ support. In 2016, rising unemployment, particularly in the bellwether county of Erie, hinted at trouble for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
• Harris is projected to carry Michigan, but her margin of victory will be quite reduced from Biden’s in 2020. President Biden’s approval, which is highly correlated with Harris’, is a drag on her performance in the Wolverine State, according to our county models. Meanwhile, the vice president is projected to perform the best in Wisconsin, but it is worth noting that the Badger State has a penchant for producing nail-biting election outcomes.
• Harris’ selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has limited implications for our county election forecasts. Vice-presidential candidates confer a small home-state advantage to the presidential ticket, and our models don’t assume Walz’s popularity in Minnesota will spill over into neighboring Wisconsin.

For more insights on the 2024 US Presidential Election, click here.